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【民生证券】大连港深度研究:坐拥东北·展望东北亚,铸造全新贸易港

民生證券 ·  Oct 16, 2012 00:00  · Researches

The world's seaports have entered a new stage. Dalian Port has obvious advantages in developing third-generation ports. Currently, second-generation port development is mainstream among the world's major ports, but with economic globalization, market internationalization, and information networking, some large ports have begun to transform into third-generation ports. Dalian Port has five major innate advantages, and it has obvious advantages in developing a third-generation seaport logistics port. Having a seat in the Northeast, looking forward to the development of ports in Northeast Asia is inseparable from the development of the hinterland economy. The northeast region of China has huge advantages in the food and equipment manufacturing industry, and freight demand will rise sharply accordingly. Meanwhile, Dalian Port is at the center of the Northeast Asian economic circle. It is the region's maritime gateway to the Pacific Ocean and the world. Its geographical advantages have enabled Dalian Port to fully benefit from the rapid growth of Northeast Asia. It has a convenient and smooth three-dimensional collection and evacuation system network (1) In terms of water transportation, Dalian Port is located on international regional main routes and is at the forefront of the main routes from the Northeast region to Northeast Asia and the Pacific; (2) on the highway side, the Shendai Expressway is connected to the national highway network in the Northeast region, and has become the starting point of the Eurasian Land Bridge through the Northeast Railway Network and Highway Network, and the Siberian Railway; (3) In terms of air transportation, Dalian has the three major indicators of passenger throughput, cargo throughput, and aircraft take-off and landing. It has ranked first among civil airports in Northeast China for 14 consecutive years ; (4) In terms of railways, the main line of the Harbin Railway is connected to the developed railway network in the northeast region. Many businesses are in a monopoly position in Northeast China. Among them, there is huge room for growth in automobiles, shipping, and grain terminals. Dalian Port has the most advanced bulk liquid chemical products transfer base in Asia, the largest and most advanced unloading berths for 300,000 tonnes of ore in the country, more than 90% of foreign trade containers in the three northeast provinces, 100% automobile throughput, and the main distribution center for grain imports and exports in the three northeast provinces and Inner Mongolia. Furthermore, the Dalian Port International Cruise Center is under rapid construction, and more than 10 major international cruise ships have docked throughout the year. Transforming a trading port to give the company a “careful recommendation” rating. Considering that the company's net profit margin is currently relatively stable, we expect the company's revenue from 12 to 14 to be 40.96, 45.24 and 5.434 billion yuan, net profit of 6.96, 7.69, and 924 million yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 4%, 10%, and 20% respectively; the corresponding fully diluted EPS in the 12-14 years is 0.16, 0.17, and 0.21 yuan, corresponding to PB 0.89, 0.84, and 0.79 times. The company is in the process of transitioning to a trade-oriented port. The net market ratio is below the average of port listed companies. The current stock price has fallen over, giving it a “careful recommendation” rating, and the target price is 3.7 yuan.

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