share_log

【日信证券】内蒙君正年报点评:扎根内蒙,持续打造煤电化一体化产业链

日信證券 ·  Apr 5, 2012 00:00  · Researches

Chlor-alkali products are still the company's main source of revenue, while coal is a new revenue growth point for the current period. The company's current industrial chain involves electricity, smelting, mining, chemicals and building materials. It currently produces 320,000 tons of PVC, 240,000 tons of caustic soda, 2.1 billion kilowatts of electricity, 2.8 billion tons of coal, 260,000 tons of calcium, 240,000 tons of white ash, 100,000 tons of ferrosilicon, and 750,000 tons of cement clinker. During the reporting period, the company's chlor-alkali products remained the company's main source of revenue. The annual production of PVC/caustic soda was 314,400 tons and 236,400 tons, respectively, and achieved revenue of 2,007 billion yuan and 438 million yuan respectively (of which caustic soda was 241 million yuan and liquid alkali was 197 million yuan), with year-on-year increases of 21.12% and 91.28%, respectively (of which caustic soda increased 261.93% year on year, liquid alkali only increased 21.49%). Coal products are a new revenue growth point for the current period, achieving revenue of 993 million yuan, an increase of 700.81% year on year (before offset). Mainly because the coal washing plant under Shenhuajunzheng, a holding subsidiary of the company, was put into formal production, washing 1.369,000 tons of raw coal throughout the year, producing 389,000 tons of refined coal, 691,000 tons of medium coal, and 34,000 tons of slime. The company's profitability is stable and expenses are properly controlled. During the reporting period, the company's comprehensive gross margin was 30.54%, a slight decrease of 2.04 percentage points from 2010, mainly due to a sharp decline in PVC market prices in the fourth quarter of 2011, which dropped from a high of 8,300 yuan/ton to 6,500 yuan/ton. By product, in 2011, gross margins of caustic soda increased by 43.87% and 49.01% respectively; PVC gross margin decreased by 7.74%; and electricity production fell 7.05% compared to the same period last year due to the high year-on-year increase in raw coal prices. During the reporting period, the company's three expenses totaled 12.52%, a decrease of 3.12 percentage points compared to 2010. Among them, the sales expense ratio was 4.03%, down 0.61 percentage points from the same period last year; the financial expense ratio was 2.01%, down 3.23 percentage points from the same period last year. The main reason was that the company repaid part of the bank loans and reduced interest expenses; the management fee ratio was 6.48%, an increase of 0.72 percentage points over the previous year. The main reasons were: first, the company's production scale expanded and the corresponding costs increased dramatically. Land use tax on industrial land increased from 3 yuan per square meter to 6 yuan per square meter, leading to a change in the company's fee structure. This is an increase over the corresponding increase. Production capacity is being expanded and invested in an orderly manner, and long-term growth can be expected. The company is based in Inner Mongolia and uses the advantages of local resources to promote the construction of the three major circular economy industrial bases in Wuhai, Ordos, and Xilingol in an orderly manner. Wuhai Junzheng Chemical is expected to be completed and put into operation in May 2012 by raising capital to expand production of 400,000 tons of PVC/320,000 tons of caustic soda; the PVC/caustic soda production line with an annual output of 55,000 tons in the old factory area will be permanently discontinued, and the schedule is for the end of March 2012. In addition, a special railway line project using self-funded expansion has already been put into use, and the calcium carbide project with an annual output of 300,000 tons is expected to be put into operation in the first half of 2012. After delivery, the company's calcium self-sufficiency rate will increase from 60% to 100%. 500,000 tons of calcium carbide and 600,000 tons of PVC/caustic soda are under construction. According to the plan, the installation of the calcium carbide production system will be completed in the first half of 2012, and all will be put into operation before the end of the year; the main civil engineering of the PVC project will be basically completed within the year, and the construction and commissioning time is expected to be in July 2013. In the long-term plan, the company plans to invest in the construction of a circular economy industrial chain based on the transformation of coal resources in the Xilinhot Industrial Park of the Xilin Gol League to form the company's third circular economy industrial base after Wuhai and Ordos, thus achieving the industrial layout in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. Currently, the company is actively carrying out preliminary work on the project. Profit forecasting, valuation and investment ratings. We expect PVC production to be 320,000 tons and 600,000 tons respectively; caustic soda production will be 240,000 tons and 450,000 tons respectively; calcium carbide production will be 440,000 tons and 820,000 tons respectively; and coal production will all be 2.6 million tons. In terms of company performance, we forecast the company's revenue in 2012-2013 to be 4.253 billion yuan and 5.526 billion yuan respectively, up 14.69% and 29.94% year-on-year respectively. Net profit attributable to the parent company was 591 million yuan and 748 million yuan, up 2.10% and 26.44% year-on-year respectively. We expect Inner Mongolia Junzheng's earnings per share to be 0.92 yuan and 1.17 yuan respectively in 2012-2013. According to the closing price on April 5, the corresponding dynamic price-earnings ratios are 19.1 times and 15.0 times, respectively, and the recommended ratings are given. Risk warning (1) the sharp drop in international oil prices has dragged down the price of PVC products; (2) real estate regulation policies continue to be tightened, and demand for PVC products is shrinking; (3) the project's commissioning schedule is lower than expected; (4) the new production capacity is difficult to digest.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment