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【民生证券】龙江交通年报点评:业绩符合预期,投资收益未来值得期待

[Minsheng Securities] Longjiang Traffic Annual report comments: the performance is in line with expectations, and the investment income is worth looking forward to in the future.

民生證券 ·  Mar 30, 2012 00:00  · Researches

An overview of events Longjiang Communications released its annual report in 2011. during the reporting period, the company achieved total operating income of 391 million yuan, net profit of 130 million yuan, net assets per share of 2.07 yuan, earnings per share of 0.11 yuan, and return on net assets of 5.30%.

Second, analyze and judge that the high-speed growth of Harbin University is stable, and the effect of price increase will be reflected in the reporting period this year. The toll revenue of Harbin-University Expressway is 328 million, an increase of 19.11% over the same period last year, accounting for 83.67% of the company's total revenue. As a result of the new maintenance branch and the rise in personnel costs, the cost growth rate is higher than the profit growth rate, and the operating profit margin is down 4.93%. Heilongjiang raised vehicle tolls by 20% and 40% at the end of 2011, which is expected to increase the company's performance by 10%.

The taxi business contributes stable income, and there is still room for growth in the future. long Yun Hyundai has 1000 taxis, with a net profit of 10.0034 million for the whole year, equivalent to EPS0.008 yuan. In recent years, although Harbin has made great efforts in the delivery of taxi capacity, the problem of "difficult to take a taxi" is still prominent. With the good cooperative relationship with the government, the company is expected to obtain new management rights in the new round of capacity delivery.

To participate in Longjiang Bank, this year will contribute to the investment income company to invest 320 million yuan to acquire a 4.9% stake in Longjiang Bank at the end of 2011. Thanks to the full support of the Heilongjiang provincial government, Longjiang Bank is currently in a period of rapid development. It is expected that the net profit from 2012 to 2013 will be 16 or 2 billion yuan, contributing 78.4 million yuan and 98 million yuan to the company, equivalent to 0.065 yuan and 0.081 yuan in EPS.

For the first time involved in the real estate industry, the project is expected to start the settlement company to intervene in the real estate business for the first time in 2013, purchasing the use right of 040 plots in Qunli New District of Harbin for 840 million yuan. Planning villas 90, 000 square meters, small and high-rise 30, 000 square meters, business services 16000 square meters, apartments 16000 square meters and planning requirements for public welfare housing. At present, the company intends to slow down the progress of the project, and 2013 is expected to start to contribute profits.

The loss of Dalian Donggao is gradually decreasing, and the company will get rid of the shackles of performance to a certain extent. During the reporting period, Dalian Donggao lost 9.33 million, which is the biggest performance burden of the company at present. At present, the company is doing well in Harbin, but the business in Dalian continues to lose money. In the future, the company intends to integrate the business of the two places, gradually shut down the business in Dalian, and shift the focus of business to Harbin. Losses are expected to improve.

Third, profit forecasting and investment advice companies have begun to embark on the road of diversification, but the strategy has not yet been finalized and the road of development is long. Maintain a "cautious recommendation" rating for the company. It is estimated that the company's 12-14-year net profit attributable to the parent company will increase by 69.25%, 51.42% and 13.43% respectively. The current share price is 14.23,9.40 and 8.28 times corresponding to PE.

IV. Profit Forecast and Investment suggestions Expressway Policy Adjustment and systemic risk

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