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【国信证券】杭齿前进:齿轮行业优势企业,风电业务是未来主要增长亮点

國信證券 ·  Sep 29, 2010 00:00  · Researches

The company is an expert in the manufacture of gear transmission equipment. The company specializes in gear transmission equipment, which is used in the four major fields of ships, construction machinery, automobiles, and wind power. In 2009, revenue was 1.8 billion, gross profit margin was 23%, and net profit margin was 5%. Among products, marine gearboxes and construction machinery transmissions have the highest market share, contributing greatly to the company's gross profit, reaching 85% in total. 101 million shares were issued this time, with a total share capital of 400 million shares after issuance. The actual controller, Xiaoshan, holds 45% of the shares. Gears are widely used, and the industry is growing steadily. Gears are divided into three categories: automotive, industrial, and special gears, covering more than 20 industries such as ships, aviation, energy, and construction machinery. China's gear industry had sales of 126 billion yuan in 2009, ranking third in the world. Benefiting from the recovery in automobile and industrial demand, the growth rate of the industry is expected to reach 15% in 10 years and continue to maintain steady growth. Demand for original products is stable, and wind power products have become the highlight of growth. Marine gearboxes have a clear competitive advantage, with a market share of 65%. The future will be hampered by the decline in the shipbuilding industry, but the “import substitution” effect will make up for the decline in downstream demand. The growth rate of marine products is expected to reach 5-10% in 10-12. Construction machinery transmission market share is 20%. As the growth rate of fixed asset investment declined in 2011, the growth rate of construction machinery transmission demand will also decline accordingly. The growth rate is expected to reach 10-15% in '11. The current production capacity of wind power growth boxes is 350 units, and the fund-raising project will build a new production capacity of 2,000 wind power accelerators and put them into production in 2012. According to the energy and wind power development plan, the compound growth rate of the industry will reach 16% in the next ten years. The wind power business will become the company's new profit growth point, with annual growth of 30-40% after 2 years. The fund-raising project made up for the shortfall in production capacity. The company, which entered a growth period in 2012, raised 750 million yuan of available capital, of which 74 million was invested in four major R&D and production expansion projects, effectively making up for the shortfall in production capacity, with an additional net profit of 140 million yuan in 2003. The reasonable value is between 7.8 and 8.1 yuan/share for 10-12 years EPS of 0.27 yuan, 0.32 yuan, and 0.37 yuan, and the three-year net profit CAGR reached 15.7%. The value range is between 7.8-8.1 yuan/share, and the corresponding 10-year PE is 27-30 times.

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