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【申银万国证券】吉鑫科技:风机铸件行业龙头,受益风电行业复苏迎来业绩大幅反转

申萬宏源 ·  May 28, 2014 00:00  · Researches

The world's leading fan casting industry has benefited from the recovery of the industry. Currently, the global demand for fan castings is about 500,000 to 700,000 tons, corresponding to a market space of 5.5 to 7.7 billion yuan. The company's global market share is about 30-40%, making it a well-deserved global leader in the industry. The company currently has business dealings with most of the world's mainstream machine manufacturers. Goldwind Technology, GE, and Envision Energy are the company's core customers. Due to a marked improvement in the domestic wind waste and electricity restrictions since 2013, the industry has ushered in a recovery, and the price of complete fans and the quarterly wind power tender volume data have rebounded sharply. As a leading global enterprise in the fan casting industry, the company will fully benefit from this major cycle of industry recovery. The company's core strengths lie in scale, technology, and full industrial chain support. The company currently has a production capacity of 210,000 tons, and its scale advantage is unshakable. The scale advantage can guarantee that the company can obtain a certain bargaining advantage when purchasing raw materials and reduce procurement costs; at the same time, it can also support the company's R&D investment and ensure technological leadership: the company is the only enterprise in the industry that can mass-produce fan castings over 3 MW. The high-power fan casting project has a large investment amount and a long cycle. It will take at least 2-3 years for new entrants to compete with companies in the field of high-power fan castings. The company has achieved full coverage of all major links from mold to casting to machining to surface treatment. The advantages of integrated industrial chain enable the company to effectively reduce production costs and increase profit margins. Performance elasticity plus volume and price have risen sharply, and the growth path is clear. The company's casting products are not priced using a cost addition model, and fixed costs such as depreciation of fixed assets and labor account for a relatively high proportion, so the company's gross margin and performance are highly flexible. It is expected that in 2014, against the backdrop of increased production, the company's gross margin will rise back to around 20%. After the company completed technical reform in 2015, the production capacity of 210,000 tons can be operated at full capacity, and it is not ruled out that production will be expanded through horizontal mergers and acquisitions or self-construction. In the context of large-scale fans, the company is expected to usher in unprecedented development opportunities with its technical advantages of being the only one in the industry to mass-produce fan castings above 3 MW. In the future, with the increase in the proportion of products over 2.5MW and 3MW, we expect that the company may increase the sales price of corresponding products to obtain a higher gross profit margin. The initial rating was “increased holdings.” We expect the company to achieve earnings of 0.17 yuan, 0.23 yuan, and 0.29 yuan per share in 2014-2016, with a compound growth rate of about 143% in 2013-2016 and a compound growth rate of 32% in 2014-2016. Currently, it corresponds to 30 times PE in 2014 and 22 times PE in 2015. The company is a leading global fan casting company, and with the overall recovery of the wind power industry, it ushered in an opportunity for performance reversal. The company's current valuation level is comparable to the average valuation of comparable companies with complete machinery and components in the wind power industry, but considering the company's position in the industry, in a reversal cycle, and strong performance elasticity, we have given the company an “increase in holdings” rating for the first time.

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