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【广发证券】吉鑫科技:中报业绩大幅增长,验证盈利高弹性判断

廣發證券 ·  Jun 25, 2014 00:00  · Researches

The company's net profit for the first half of 2014 increased by 500-550% year-on-year. The company issued a performance forecast. The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in the first half of 2014 increased by 500%-550% compared with the same period last year. The net profit for the first half of '13 was 5,5943 million yuan, and the net profit range for the first half of 2014 was 279.715 million yuan to 307.687 million yuan. We believe that mainly due to the gradual warming of the wind power industry, the company's gross margin increased by a certain margin compared to the first half of '13, and there is still room for future gross margin to rise. Global wind power component leaders benefit from the gradual recovery of the wind power industry, and there are clear signs of recovery in the wind power industry. In 2014, the new wind power installed capacity in China is expected to reach 20 GW, with a year-on-year growth rate of more than 20%. At the same time, the recent introduction of a benchmark electricity price for offshore wind power will further guarantee the profitability of offshore wind power. Although offshore wind power does not account for much in the short term, in the long run, offshore wind power has broken through the bottleneck of onshore wind power installed capacity. As a leading global wind power casting company, the company will benefit first from the recovery and growth of the wind power industry. The company's size and technology advantages are obvious, and the gross margin is flexible. The company has advantages in various aspects such as scale, technology, and customers, good cost control, and outstanding comprehensive strength. Currently, the company is the only company in the world that can mass-produce wind power castings for models of 3 MW and above. With the increase in the share of casting sales for the company's fans of 3 MW and above, the product structure has been optimized. At the same time, the company's production has increased and fixed costs have been further reduced, so there is plenty of room for gross margin to rise under stable sales prices. We judge that the company's gross margin for the full year of 2014 is expected to reach 25% or more. At the same time, the company expanded production capacity through technological reform and acquisitions to further increase market share and enhance the competitiveness and voice of the industry. Profit forecast and valuation. We expect the company's 2014-2016 EPS to be 0.21 yuan, 0.34 yuan, and 0.43 yuan respectively, raising the target price to 7 yuan and maintaining the “buy” rating. Risk warning: The recovery of the wind power industry is lower than expected risk; the risk of capacity expansion falling short of expectations.

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