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【申银万国证券】内蒙君正:长假后氯碱行业景气显著下滑,首次给予“中性”评级

申萬宏源 ·  Oct 25, 2011 00:00  · Researches

Investment highlights: The three-quarter results are in line with expectations. The company released the third quarterly report and achieved total revenue of 2.84 billion yuan and net profit of 480 million yuan in the first three quarters, up 48% and 134% year-on-year respectively; the EPS for the third quarter was 0.75 yuan, which is basically in line with our forecast of 0.74 yuan. The chlor-alkali industry declined markedly in the third quarter. The company only achieved EPS of 0.23 yuan in Q3, down 27% from 0.32 yuan in Q2. This is mainly because the price difference between calcium carbide PVC and PVC and calcium carbide in the Yangtze River Delta region in Q3 was only 7,694 yuan and 1,453 yuan, respectively, a decrease of 255 yuan and 454 yuan compared to Q2. The PVC boom continued to decline after the 11th long holiday. After the 11th long holiday, demand for PVC deteriorated further as the housing market became a bubble and the northern region gradually entered a low season. At the same time, the decline in calcium carbide prices also formed a vicious cycle in the price system. Currently, the latest PVC price in East China is only around 6,500 yuan, and we expect that it will not improve significantly before the end of the year. After the 11th long holiday, the caustic soda boom basically peaked. Currently, demand from the main downstream papermaking, chemical fiber, alumina and other industries for caustic soda remains stable. Since the chlor-alkali industry is affected by falling PVC and liquid chlorine prices, the supply of caustic soda as a co-production product has decreased, and the price is still stable at an all-time high. However, we expect the price of caustic soda to fall slightly as maintenance companies resume production. The company uses its integrated advantages to continue to expand production capacity. The company is expected to add 300,000 tons of calcium carbide in early 2012, expand another 300,000 tons of calcium carbide in the medium term, and add 300,000 tons of PVC/225,000 tons of caustic soda by the end of 2012. The company's long-term plan is to invest 26.9 billion yuan to build coal resource conversion projects such as coal, electricity, chlor-alkali chemicals, acetylene chemicals, and new coal chemicals in the Xilinhot Industrial Park. A “neutral” rating was given for the first time. We expect the company's 11, 12, and 13 year EPS to be 0.92 yuan, 1.00 yuan, and 1.30 yuan respectively. Currently, the company's stock price is 19.74 yuan, corresponding to the 11, 12, and 13 PE, which is 21, 20, and 15 times, respectively. There is no obvious valuation advantage, and it has been given a “neutral” rating for the first time.

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