Investment highlights: The company issued an interim performance forecast announcement: The company expects the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in the first half of 2014 to increase by 500%-550% compared with the same period last year, about 335.7-36.36 million yuan, corresponding to EPS of 0.03-0.04 yuan, slightly higher than our expectations. The reason for the anticipated increase in the performance of the interim report is that along with the gradual warming of the wind power industry, the company's sales revenue has increased, and the level of profit has increased. The performance of the interim report has increased dramatically, fully verifying the logic recommended in our previous report: the company's performance is flexible, and the performance will reverse drastically during the recovery period of the industry. The company's business model is to determine procurement framework agreements with major customers at the beginning of each year, and product prices are not priced using a cost addition method based on price fluctuations of pig iron, the main material. Furthermore, in the cost composition of the company's casting products, material costs account for about 50-60%, energy consumption costs account for about 10%, and fixed costs such as depreciation and labor account for about 15-20%, which means that after exceeding the break-even point, the marginal gross margin of the company's casting products will increase markedly as production increases. We expect the company's casting production to increase by about 40% year on year in the full year of 2014, which will lead to a sharp reversal in the company's performance. The recovery of the main business is not driven by one-time profit and loss, and the three-quarter report and annual report will continue to be verified. We expect the high increase in performance in the interim report this time to be due to the recovery of the main business rather than one-time profit and loss, so the reversal of the company's performance this year can be continuously verified through the next three quarterly reports and annual reports. According to historical experience, the company's business is seasonal to a certain extent. The second half of the year is the peak period for delivery and revenue recognition, and the growth rate of the company's performance throughout the year may further exceed the interim report. Maintain profit forecasts and maintain an increase in holdings rating. We expect the company to achieve earnings of 0.17 yuan, 0.23 yuan and 0.29 yuan per share in 2014-2016, with a compound growth rate of about 143% in 2013-2016 and a compound growth rate of 32% in 2014-2016. Currently, it corresponds to 36 times PE in 2014 and 27 times PE in 2015. The company is a leading global fan casting company. With the overall recovery of the wind power industry, the company ushered in an opportunity for performance reversal and maintained an increase in holdings rating.
【申银万国证券】吉鑫科技:中报业绩大幅增长500-550%,验证前期推荐逻辑,维持增持评级
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