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【安信证券】中国一重2010年报点评:股价调整充分,业绩触底回升

安信證券 ·  May 3, 2011 00:00  · Researches

In 2010, the company achieved operating income of 8.59 billion yuan, net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company of 790 million yuan, and earnings per share of 0.12 yuan. In 2010, metallurgical equipment achieved sales revenue of 2.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 63%, mainly due to falling demand in the steel industry affected by the financial crisis. In 2010, new orders for metallurgical equipment were received about 9.76 billion yuan. The situation has improved compared to the same period last year. We believe that the steel industry has bottomed out and that this business will resume growth in 2011. In 2010, revenue from nuclear power equipment was 1.41 billion yuan, an increase of 550% over the previous year, and the gross margin remained at a high level of 37%. We believe that China's use of nuclear energy under the premise of safety is the general trend. Considering the number of orders the company has in hand, it is expected that the company's nuclear energy equipment business will maintain a steady development trend in 2011. The heavy pressure vessel business achieved sales revenue of 1.93 billion yuan in 2010, a year-on-year decline of 9.6%. Currently, global oil prices are high. We believe that demand for large chemical pressure vessels, coal chemical vessels, and very large hydrogenation reactors will pick up. In 2010, a new contract of 2.16 billion yuan was signed, an increase of 86% over the previous year. The business is expected to maintain steady growth in 2011. Large-scale castings and forgings achieved sales revenue of 1.92 billion yuan in 2010, a year-on-year decline of 9.91%, and new orders of 1 billion yuan were signed. The company's large-scale casting and forging business is expected to be relatively stable in 2011. The gross margin of this business is as high as 38%, which is still an important source of profit for the company. The consolidated gross margin for 2010 was 26%, down 4.8 percentage points from the same period last year. Considering prices, costs, and order structure, we expect the gross margin in 2011 to remain around 25%. In 2010, the company signed new contracts worth 16.4 billion yuan, an increase of 73.58% over the previous year. Currently, the company has about 16 billion yuan of orders in hand, which will lay the foundation for the bottoming out and recovery of the company's performance in 2011. We forecast that in 2011-2013, the company's main business revenue will be 101, 114, and 131 billion yuan, net profit of 9.98, 12.77 and 1,498 million yuan respectively, and earnings per share of 0.15, 0.2, and 0.23 yuan respectively. The company's stock price has been fully adjusted in the previous period. The net market ratio in 2011 was only 1.3 times. The company's brand and strength are still prominent, and we are optimistic about its long-term development prospects. According to the 2011 40x PE valuation, with a reasonable stock price of 6 yuan and a closing price of 5.21 yuan on April 29, we maintain our “buy-A” investment rating. Risk warning: Changes in industry and company fundamentals that exceed expectations have prevented profit forecasting targets from being achieved.

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