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【国泰君安证券】太平洋:定增迎来凤凰涅磐,机制堪比国金锦龙

國泰君安 ·  Jul 27, 2014 00:00  · Researches

Investment points: Maintain the “increase in holdings” rating and maintain the 2014-16 profit forecast of 0.09/0.14/0.16 yuan. After the fixed increase in the number of companies is completed, the credit transaction business is expected to explode, the brokerage business will accelerate the layout of outlets across the country, and there are innate conditions for expanding Internet finance. The target price was raised to 11.80 yuan, corresponding to 4.5 times PB. The fixed increase became an inflection point, and the innovation business license was basically fully obtained. The company's listing was highly controversial, and it did not obtain a new business license for several years after listing. After the fixed increase was completed in April 2014, the company's net capital increased to 5.39 billion yuan, ranking among medium-sized brokerage firms, and the inflection point of the company's performance has reached. In the context of encouraging mixed ownership, the company has gradually obtained almost all innovative business licenses. Innovative businesses such as credit transactions/wealth management/new investment banks will be the driving force for future development. Innovation business performance is highly flexible, and ROE is expected to continue to increase. It is estimated that the fixed capital increase of nearly 3.7 billion yuan will be mainly invested in innovative businesses such as credit transactions/direct investment/asset management. Based on the experience of small and medium-sized brokerage firms such as Fangzheng/Society/Dongwu, there is great flexibility in improving performance. The company set up new branches outside of the province in the first half of 2014, and will expand more than 30 new sales departments, mainly light outlets. In the future, it will focus on developing the two financing/asset management businesses, and it is expected that online and offline interaction will be achieved. As of the end of June 2014, the balance of the company's two loans was about 250 million yuan, and there is still room for expansion. The ROE of the company's business that relies on traditional channels is less than 4%. We estimate that under conditions of increased leverage, credit transactions can increase brokers' ROE to 10% or more. Expanding Internet finance, there is huge potential for subsequent innovation. The companies are similar to Guojin Securities/Zhongshan Securities. They are all medium-sized brokerage firms with flexible private management mechanisms, and the opportunity cost for business transformation is low. Currently, the BAT Internet giant is seeking to obtain a wealth management license. The majority shareholders of the company hold less than 15% of the shares, so there is huge potential for expanding Internet finance in the future. Core risks: business transformation is lagging behind; internet finance strategy is being thwarted; general market downturn.

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