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【民族证券】华鼎锦纶12年报点评:年报基本符合预期,13年还看切片投产

民族證券 ·  Mar 28, 2013 00:00  · Researches

The company's performance was generally in line with expectations. In 2012, the company achieved revenue of 1,771 billion yuan, an increase of 1.67%; net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was 76.14 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 44%; EPS was 0.12 yuan, 0.01 yuan less than our forecast. In the fourth quarter, the company's revenue was 424 million yuan, down 7.63% from the previous year; net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was 38.2615 million yuan, an increase of 281.45%; net profit to shareholders of the parent company in the fourth quarter of 2011 was 14.1019 million yuan, so net profit to shareholders of the parent company increased by 52.3634 million yuan year on year in the fourth quarter of 2012; EPS 0.0598 yuan. The downward 12-year industry cycle led to a decline in the company's performance, but profitability improved in the fourth quarter. Influenced by the macroeconomic situation at home and abroad in 2012, the price of nylon 6 products fell sharply, but the company sold properly. Actual production increased by 16.63%, sales increased by 21.02%, and inventory fell by 33.39%. This is in line with our previous forecast of sales volume. However, the company's annual revenue increased by only 1.67%, which was lower than our expectations. The company's gross margin increased by about 10 percentage points in the fourth quarter, reaching 18.57%. This is in line with the trend of widening price differences between products and raw materials we have observed. It is also one of the reasons for our promotion. The previous market was excessively pessimistic. The company's performance for the first quarter was guaranteed, and the highlight for 2013 was the start of slicing production capacity. The price difference between the company's products and raw materials continued to widen in the first quarter. Also, judging from current macro data, we don't think there are any major problems with product sales, so we think the first quarter results are guaranteed. The highlight of the company for 13 years was the commissioning of the nylon slicing project. We are firmly optimistic about the company's development in the next three years and give it an “increase in wealth” rating. We expect the company's EPS to be 0.18 yuan, 0.32 yuan, and 0.54 yuan in 2012-2014, maintaining an investment rating of “increased holdings” for the time being. For a relevant analysis of the company, please see our March 22 research report and subsequent related research reports.

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