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【长江证券】连云港:募资提升泊位专业化程度,对价合理业绩增厚需等待

長江證券 ·  Jan 31, 2013 00:00  · Researches

Description of the incident Lianyungang issued a private issuance plan: The company plans to privately issue no more than 351 million A-shares to no more than 10 specific targets, and raise no more than 1.09 billion yuan in capital at a price of no less than 3.17 yuan. The fund-raising projects are 55#-57 #通用泊位工程项目和收购鑫联公司75% equity projects. Incident review Asset injection mitigates competition among peers. After this release, the problem of peer competition between companies and groups has been mitigated. Meanwhile, Port Group, the controlling shareholding ratio of the company's controlling shareholder will increase from 48.81% before issuance to 49.65%, further strengthening its holding position. Improve specialized handling capabilities and ease production capacity bottlenecks. The fund-raising investment projects issued this time include 5 100,000-ton general purpose berths, a storage area of 329,000 square meters, and a total design throughput of 12.86 million tons. Due to the throughput capacity of the port area, the bulk cargo handling berths in Lianyungang are at a high load state. At the same time, among the company's main types of coking coal, wood, alumina, and chemical fertilizers, there is currently only 1 professional coking coal terminal. The tonnage and degree of specialization of the fertilizer berths are also low, and there are no specialized coke or timber depots. This acquisition can increase the company's handling and storage capacity for these types of goods, alleviate the current shortage of production capacity, and improve handling efficiency and competitiveness. Purchase consideration: Approximately 18% off the company's PE price. Statically, the PE consideration paid by the company for the 5 berths purchased through this non-public offering is 10.66 times (13.75/1.29 = 10.66X), but if you consider that the project will still take 2 years to fully achieve production, it is estimated at a discount rate of 4.4% per year (currently the 1-year SHIBOR interest rate is 4.4%), then the dynamic purchase consideration is about 11.62 times. The price-earnings ratio of the company in 2013 was 14.14 times, that is, the current discount rate of the underlying asset compared to the joint stock company is about 18%. Considering that there are still 2 years until delivery, we think a discount rate close to 20% is more reasonable. EPS impact: Expected to begin to increase after 3 years. According to our estimates, since berths 55-57 were put into operation relatively late, it would take 3 years for the positive impact of the non-public offering on the company's performance to be reflected. Before the non-public offering, the 2013-2015 EPS was 0.249 yuan, 0.268 yuan, and 0.289 yuan, respectively, and the EPS after issuance was estimated at 0.191 yuan, 0.249 yuan, and 0.298 yuan. If the above berths are completed and put into operation ahead of schedule or if the production period is moderately shortened, the above profit forecast can be raised appropriately. Maintain a “careful recommendation” rating for the company.

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