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【长城证券】文峰股份:深耕苏北,布局线上,打造区域领先o2o平台

長城證券 ·  May 22, 2014 12:00  · Researches

The company's 2014-2016 EPS is expected to be 0.56 yuan, 0.61 yuan, and 0.66 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE is 12X, 11X, and 10X, respectively. As a regional leader in the third- and fourth-tier markets, the company has obvious competitive advantages, steady endogenous growth and a nurturing period superior to the industry level. With sufficient project reserves, good growth potential has been established. For the first time, the company was given a “recommended” rating. Continue to deploy third- and fourth-tier cities+urban complexes to achieve the Wenfeng model expansion strategy: Based on the scarce terminal channels in third- and fourth-tier cities and the strong demand brought about by consumption upgrades, the company relied on years of retail management advantages and major shareholder support, low-cost land acquisition, promoted the third- and fourth-tier markets in the form of urban complexes, and relieved the pressure on capital and financial costs caused by the expansion through the sale of some properties. We are optimistic about the company's influence in Jiangsu, especially in Nantong and surrounding markets. With the support of multiple low-cost reserve projects, we can guarantee its good future growth. The business situation of the main stores is gradually picking up, and the two major county-level urban complexes are growing strongly: due to the macroeconomic downturn and store renovation adjustments that began in the first half of '12, the revenue of the company's main store on South Street fell 2% year on year. Last year, the main renovation was completed, and annual revenue increased 10% year over year. Currently, only the food court on the 8th floor is still attracting investment. It is expected that it will open for business in the first half of the year. After all upgrades are completed, the store area will expand by 10,000 square meters. We expect the South Street store revenue growth rate to be around 5% in '14. The two new flagship stores in Rugao and Hai'an achieved net profit of 7.14 million yuan and 2.6 million yuan respectively in 13 years, an increase of 42% and 7 times over the previous year. Both achieved profits in the same year, reflecting the company's good cost control capabilities. We judge that after a period of rapid growth, the scale of these two county-level urban complexes will show a steady growth trend in the future. Overall, we maintain the company's revenue and performance growth forecast of about 10% without a fundamental change in the consumer environment in 14 years. Project reserves are abundant to support future growth: the company's epitaxial expansion is progressing steadily, and the growth space is clear. Projects such as Nantong Second Store, Haimen Xinwenfeng World, Qidong Wenfeng Phase II, Rugao Baipu Wenfeng Grand World, Rugao Wenfeng City Plaza (Rucheng Street), Shanghai Kongjiang Road, and Shanghai Songjiang have been announced, and several other projects are under negotiation. The second store in Nantong has now been completed, with a total investment of 2 billion yuan, with a construction area of 200,000 square meters, including 32,000 square meters of department stores, 40,000 square meters of shopping malls, 10,000 square meters of large stores, and offices, hotels and residences. The project is located at the junction of the old and new city. It is expected to become a landmark consumer place in Nantong in the future. It is expected that the department store section will achieve break-even by the end of May. The Rugao Baipu project is mainly a supermarket business and is scheduled to open this year. Next year, Haimen Xinwenfeng Grand World and Qidong Phase II are expected to be put into use. The company has plenty of reserve projects, which can support continuous development for the next three years. Explore the omni-channel model to create a regionally leading O2O platform: “Aishengfeng” is a next-generation O2O online shopping platform that integrates the Group's other high-quality resources to independently develop a next-generation O2O online shopping platform. It now covers categories such as traditional home appliances, daily necessities, restaurants and hotels, and travel tickets. The mall will be launched at the end of May, and will gradually penetrate channels such as mobile and micro-shopping in the future, eventually realizing an omni-channel strategy combining all offline outlets and warehousing and logistics resources. The company continues to increase its online market share by strengthening the simultaneous development of online platforms and physical stores. We believe that the company actively lays out and explores the O2O model, which in the long run will help to continuously improve the ability and profitability of the company's stores to attract customers. Risk warning: The economic downturn, online business progress, real estate business settlement, and store development fell short of expectations.

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