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【长江证券】连云港:费用增加抵消规模扩张,物流场站项目达产延迟

長江證券 ·  Apr 24, 2013 00:00  · Researches

The incident described Lianyungang's 2012 annual report. Operating revenue increased 7.65% year on year to 1,615 billion yuan, gross margin decreased 1.42 percentage points year on year to 26% year on year, and net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company increased by 3.04% year on year to 151 million yuan, achieving EPS of 0.19 yuan, the same as the previous year. Profit distribution plan: A cash dividend of 0.6 yuan (tax included) will be distributed for every 10 shares. The scale of the incident review business expanded by about 10%, management expenses rose, and performance remained flat compared to the same period last year. The company's throughput and revenue in 2012 increased by 10.38% and 7.65%, respectively. The revenue growth rate was slightly lower than the throughput growth rate. This was mainly due to the fact that cargo port fees were no longer included in the company's main business revenue in 2012, but were directly refunded as non-operating income at a rate of 50%. If the return of cargo port fees of 26.5 million is added back to 2012 revenue, the revised revenue growth rate is 9.4%, which is basically close to the throughput growth rate. Overall, the company's annual revenue scale increased by about 10%, and the gross margin level (after considering the revised revenue growth rate) was basically flat. Gross profit growth mainly depended on volume growth, but the increase in management expenses basically offset this part of the increase in performance, and the final net profit was basically the same as the previous year. The main business lost money for the first time in the fourth quarter, and port fee reimbursement calmed down fluctuations. Looking at a single quarter in the fourth quarter, the company's revenue fell 6.61% year on year to 392 million yuan, and gross margin fell 436 percentage points year on year to 18.75%. Since investment income was also a net loss, operating profit was -15.25 million, which was ultimately driven by the return of goods and port fees of 26.5 million. Net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company fell 0.93% year on year to 14.89 million, achieving EPS of 0.02 yuan, the same as the same period last year. Coal contributed half of the increase, and the ore growth rate showed a slight bottleneck. Benefiting from the rapid growth rate of China's coal imports in 2012, the company's coal throughput increased by 22.93% year on year, and coal products contributed 57% of the throughput increase; while iron ore was affected by the slowdown in domestic economic growth and the diversion of surrounding ports, throughput fell 2.27% year on year; other fast growing commodities include laterite nickel ore (20.55%), alumina (164.63%), and machinery and equipment (60.67%). Delivery of the logistics terminal project was delayed, and “careful recommendation” was maintained. The company's future fundamental highlights mainly come from: 1) the improvement of the collection and evacuation system in the port area; 2) the expansion of the liquefied chemicals handling business; and 3) the development of the port industry in the hinterland. In the short term, due to the slow progress of related demolition work, the delivery time of the logistics station project in the Xugou East Operation Area will be delayed by 1 year. Assuming that the performance contribution remains at the original level, we expect the company's EPS for 2013-2015 to be 0.21 yuan, 0.26 yuan, and 0.28 yuan respectively, corresponding to PE of 15.34 times, 12.43 times, and 11.74 times, maintaining the “careful recommendation” rating for the company.

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