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【国泰君安证券】亚泰集团:重识金融平台公司,产业换档亦渐入正轨

國泰君安 ·  Dec 7, 2014 00:00  · Researches

In 2014-2015, we expect to achieve net profit of 200 million yuan and 370 million yuan, respectively, and EPS of 0.11 yuan and 0.20 yuan respectively. Considering the overall rise in the corporate valuation system of comparable targets of the company's distributed valuation in various business sectors, and the further advancement of the company's business transformation “shift”, we raised the company's target price to 12.16 yuan. Maintain the “Overweight” rating. From cement to medicine, the “shift” of the industrial cycle: In the last cycle (since its launch in 1995), “leveraged” Yatai achieved rapid expansion in strong cycle fields such as cement, real estate, and coal, and accumulated high debt ratios, and in the future, it will gradually adjust the industrial structure and capital structure: that is, deleveraging the asset structure (reduction in debt ratio), in traditional industries (cement, real estate), etc., it may “subtract”, and at the same time increase investment in the pharmaceutical industry cultivated over many years to achieve a “shift in development” in its own industrial cycle. The pharmaceutical industry is a new pillar industry, opening up traditional industries The company's new cycle. Holding brokerage firms, participating banks, and focusing on financial platform companies: the company controls shareholders, North Securities (ratio 30.71%) and shares in Bank of Jilin (ratio 9.96%), is reflected in the balance sheet as long-term equity investment (equity law), and is recorded only in net assets owned by the invested unit. We believe that the financial asset portion is more suitable for calculating fair value. In the context of possible active market transactions in 2015, this part of financial assets has room for high revaluation and value-added value. Benefiting from the interest rate cut cycle, asset structure “deleveraging”: As of the end of the 3rd quarter of 2014, the balance ratio was 75.64%. According to the fixed increase plan, about 2.9 billion yuan was raised mainly to repay loans and supplement working capital. We believe that the company will benefit from the interest rate cut cycle and achieve “deleveraging.” Risk warning: domestic currency and real estate macroeconomic policy risks.

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