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【首创证券】龙建股份:需求持续疲软,未来成长取决于三因素

首創證券 ·  Apr 15, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Performance description. Operating income fell 1.49% year on year, and net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies increased 4.62% year on year. Net cash flow from operating activities turned negative this year, falling by as much as 3010.69%. Net assets attributable to shareholders of listed companies increased slightly by 0.64% year-on-year. The company's total assets fell 2.48% year over year. EPS grew 4.67% year over year. Performance reviews. Operating profit continues to decline, and profitability needs to be improved; total assets have declined for the first time, and it remains to be seen whether the scale contraction will continue. In order to change the current situation where highway construction has been lagging behind for a long time, Heilongjiang has implemented a three-year grand leap forward project approval construction since 2009. Since the company belongs to the Heilongjiang State-owned Assets Administration Commission, it is a local state-owned enterprise. With the end of the “Three Years of Battle,” investment growth in the province has slowed. Since 2013, the company's revenue has declined sharply by close to 85 billion yuan, and operating profit is only 851 million yuan. Operating profit fell to 490 million yuan in 2014, the lowest in five years. In fact, the company's operating profit continued to decline for five consecutive years, gradually falling from 4,275 million yuan in 2010 to 490 million yuan this year. Operating profit represents the company's core profit and comprehensively reflects the company's main business conditions. The continuous decline in this indicator reflects the continued poor profitability of the company. Furthermore, the company's total assets declined for the first time in 2014. The analysis found that the significant decline in other receivables and inventories in current assets was the reason for the decline in total assets, which fell by 145 million yuan and 196 million yuan respectively. Inventories include raw materials, turnover materials, low-value consumables, and completed unsettled payments. The main reason for this decline in inventory is due to a reduction in the book value of raw materials, which has directly shrunk by 102 million dollars. Analysts believe that due to the double impact of slowing investment in highway construction within the province and fierce competition outside the province, the sharp decline in the scale of construction projects that year led to a sharp decline in construction material reserves compared to the beginning of the year. Therefore, the contraction in total assets stemmed from a decline in market sentiment rather than asset disposal. Whether the scale contraction continues still depends on the growth rate of road construction investment, especially in the provincial market, and there is uncertainty. There are plenty of on-going orders, and the road investment and construction market in the province is still huge. Long-term improvements in the company's performance make it even more necessary to expand external markets. Although aggregate demand has declined, hand orders are still plentiful. The company added 6 billion yuan in orders in 2014, which is 1.07 times the revenue of that year. There are plenty of on-hand orders, laying the foundation for next year's revenue. Moreover, investment in highway construction in the province is still huge. The investment of Heilongjiang Province in 2015 is estimated to be 424 kilometers of highways, with an annual investment of 3.86 billion yuan; the renovation of 1920 kilometers of national and provincial highways, with an annual investment of 6.23 billion yuan; 3,000 kilometers of rural highways, with an annual investment of 3 billion yuan; and 710 million yuan for dangerous bridge rehabilitation, security projects, and border control, with a total investment of 13.8 billion yuan, 2.47 times the company's revenue for that year. As a highway construction enterprise in the province, if the company grasps the local market, there is a possibility that revenue will improve in the short term. The long-term growth of a company depends on three factors. According to long-term analysis, the company's continuous profit improvement depends on three factors: 1. It is necessary to vigorously expand markets outside the province. The “National Highway Network Plan 2013-2030” expands the total scale of the highway network to 401,000 kilometers, doubling the overall construction scale. Of these, about 136,000 kilometers of expressways have been built, and 18,000 kilometers of long-term observation lines concentrated in the central and western regions have been set for the first time. Currently, the company's share of orders from outside the province is still low, and the highway construction market in the province will gradually become saturated. Actively expanding the market outside the province is an important guarantee for the company's continued profit in the future. 2. Actively lay out new business. Highway construction is the company's main business, but there are many enterprises working in the industry, and competition is fierce. If the company can extend the industrial chain and get involved in the building materials and real estate business, it may form new profit growth points. Especially in the context of an energy-saving and environmentally friendly green industry, the green building materials and green building business will have great potential. 3. Actively participate in the highway construction market in the three eastern provinces. There is still some room for network toll projects and road connection services in the three provinces. The company should pay close attention and actively participate. Risk warning. (1) The company is a local state-owned enterprise, and its business is highly dependent on the local market. Highway construction in the province may slow down further in the future, leading to a continued decline in revenue. (2) Future increases in labor costs and material costs for engineering construction may put pressure on profit growth.

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