Turbochargers have seen leaps and bounds, exceeding our expectations. The company is currently the only A-share company that produces turbochargers for mainstream passenger cars (participating in 40% of Shanghai's shares). Currently, it mainly supplies BMW, Great Wall (C30, H6), SAIC passenger cars, etc., and is expected to enter the supporting systems of car companies such as SAIC-GM and Volkswagen in the future. In 2012, the assembly rate of passenger car turbochargers in China was about 10.7%, and it is expected to increase to about 25% by 2016. In 2012, the market share of Shanghai Lishige turbochargers was about 12%, and the market share is expected to increase to 25% by 2016. Sales volume rose from 0.25 million units to 1.7 million units in 2012-2016, with a compound growth rate of 61.5%, contributing 0.01, 0.04, 0.08, 0.16, and 0.27 yuan to the company, respectively, exceeding our expectations. Equipped with SAIC-GM-Wuling, passenger car diesel engines have ushered in spring. The fuel saving rate of diesel engines for passenger cars is above 30%. It is currently a realistic and practical solution for energy saving and emission reduction for internal combustion engines, and using microcars as an entry point for diesel is in line with China's national conditions. The company will supply 0.9L-1.9L diesel engines for SAIC-GM-Wuling and will build production sites with a total production capacity of 0.4 million vehicles per year in Shanghai and Liuzhou. According to our neutral hypothesis, from 2014 to 2016, the company's supply ratio for SAIC-GM-Wuling increased from 4% to 21%, and sales increased from 0.06 million vehicles to 0.35 million vehicles, with a compound growth rate of about 147%. In 2013, fund-raising projects and LNG engines were put into operation one after another, and profitability was improved. The heavy engines, which the company cooperated with AVL in Austria, will be mass-produced in the 3rd quarter of 2013, mainly equipped with SAIC Iveco Hongyan, Valin and Foton. The light engine was put into production in the first quarter of 2013, and is mainly equipped with SAIC Chase, Jinlong, and Nanjing Jiulong. The company already has the capacity to produce 4L-12L LNG engines and is expected to share the rapid growth of the LNG industry. We believe that with SAIC Motor Group's backing, the capacity utilization rate will remain high, and the gross margin of commercial vehicles is high, so the company's profitability is expected to gradually increase. Investment advice: Maintain a “buy-A” investment rating, raise profit forecasts, and raise the 12-month target price to 18.00 yuan. Turbochargers surpassed expectations by leaps and bounds, so we raised the company's profit forecast. Relying on the rapid development of the four businesses of turbochargers, diesel engines for vehicles, and LNG engines, we expect revenue growth rates of 9.4%, 58.6%, 36.2%, and 47.4% from 2013 to 2016, respectively, and net profit growth rates belonging to the parent company will be 31.6%, 53.9%, 60.2%, and 51.1%, respectively. After full dilution, EPS was 0.31 yuan, 0.47 yuan, 0.76 yuan, and 1.15 yuan respectively. It maintained a “buy-A” investment rating, and raised the 12-month target price to 18.00 yuan, corresponding 24 times the 2015 valuation. Risk warning: The incentive policy for riding diesel fell short of expectations; the turbocharger market was squeezed by new energy vehicles; automobile sales fell sharply; raw material prices rose sharply.
【安信证券】上柴股份深度研究:汽车节能减排的领军企业
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