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【天相投资】中国嘉陵:难改微利局面,长期可期待资产注入

[Tianxiang Investment] Jialing, China: it is difficult to change the situation of small profits, and we can look forward to asset injection for a long time.

天相投資 ·  Oct 30, 2009 00:00  · Researches

From January to September 2009, the company achieved operating income of 2.705 billion yuan, an increase of 3.46% over the same period last year; operating profit was-13 million yuan, compared with-146 million yuan for the same period last year; and the net profit of owners belonging to the parent company was 7 million yuan, an increase of 2.98% over the same period last year.

The off-season effect appeared, with revenue declining in the third quarter compared with the previous quarter. The company is one of the leading domestic motorcycle production enterprises. As July and August are the traditional off-season for motorcycle sales, the company's operating income fell 9.38% in the third quarter compared with the previous quarter.

Domestic sales growth is expected to be clear, and export business is expected to improve next year. In the first half of the year, the company's domestic business revenue increased by 39.30% compared with the same period last year, while export business revenue fell by 56.43%. We expect that, benefiting from the domestic motorcycle policy and the steady recovery of the economy, the growth of the company's domestic business revenue this year is expected to be clear, while the export business may not be able to improve until next year.

Optimize the product structure, which is conducive to long-term development. At present, there are many domestic motorcycle manufacturing enterprises, and the competition in the industry is fierce, and the motorcycle policy to the countryside has failed to achieve the purpose of optimizing the industry structure. This year, the company implements business strategies such as speeding up product restructuring, mainly promoting profitable platform products, and promoting marketing changes, which will help the company to further consolidate its position in the industry. We are relatively optimistic about the long-term development of the company.

Long-term asset injection can be expected. Although the status of the industry is obvious, it is still difficult for the company to get rid of the low-profit industry characteristics. At present, the company's controlling shareholder, Southern Industrial Group, has a plan for asset integration. China Jialing and ST Qingqi, the two listed platforms of the group's motorcycle assets, have the possibility of asset injection. We believe that the group may choose to put motorcycle assets on a platform to achieve the overall listing, and China Jialing, which is expected to have relatively strong operating capacity, will be the first choice. We are cautiously optimistic about the asset injection and the business prospects of the company after the injection.

It is estimated that the company's EPS in 2009 and 2010 will be 0.02 yuan and 0.03 yuan respectively. Based on the closing price of 5.73 yuan on October 29th, the corresponding dynamic price-to-earnings ratio is 286.5 times and 191times respectively, which is higher than the industry average. Maintain a neutral investment rating on the company. The main risks to be noticed are the lower than expected sales of domestic motorcycles, the uncertainty of the recovery of export business, the uncertainty of asset injection and the risk of raw material price fluctuations.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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