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【西南证券】中国嘉陵:业绩启稳回升,行业整合想像空间大

[southwest Securities] Jialing, China: performance has rebounded steadily, and there is a lot of room for industry consolidation.

西南證券 ·  Jul 31, 2009 00:00  · Researches

Event description: during the reporting period, the company realized operating income of 1.786 billion yuan, an increase of 6.81% over the same period last year; net profit attributed to the parent company was 4.9158 million yuan, an increase of 27% over the same period last year, and basic earnings per share was 0.007 yuan.

Main points: 1. The prosperity of the industry has rebounded, exports have been blocked, and domestic demand has been supported. The export volume of the five major emissions of domestic motorcycles bottomed out and rebounded in February, stepping into a gradual growth trend. Export business shrank in the first half of 2009, down 56% from the same period last year, and the annual export business revenue is expected to be 346 million yuan, accounting for 12% of the total business income. In the case of blocked exports, the domestic market forms an important support for the company's performance. In 2009, the domestic operating income reached 1.537 billion yuan, an increase of 39.3% over the same period last year. The operating profit margin increased by 0.89% over the previous year, and the domestic operating income for the whole year is expected to exceed 3.8 billion yuan.

2. Business income rebounded quarter by quarter, and the main business is expected to turn from deficit to profit in the second half of the year. The company's operating income fluctuates seasonally and is at the peak of operating income in the second half of the year. In the second quarter of 2009, the company's operating income reached 1.0136539 billion yuan, an increase of 31.2% month-on-month and 19.7% year-on-year, returning to the level of the same period in 2007.

3. The brand value is enhanced and the influence of the industry is expanded. The brand value of Jialing in China has increased to 8.135 billion yuan, ranking second in the motorcycle manufacturing industry, and the influence of the industry is increasing.

4. There is a lot of room for industry integration. The Chongqing municipal government has proposed to build the motorcycle capital of China, and intends to build Chongqing into the largest motorcycle production base in China. It is planned to complete an investment of 100 billion yuan in the automobile and motorcycle industry by 2011, with an annual production capacity of 15 million motorcycles. The influence of Jialing in China is expected to be greatly enhanced, R & D and procurement costs will be greatly reduced, inter-industry competition will be reduced, and sales channels will be broadened.

5. Profit forecast of the company. Under the circumstances of the global economic recession in 2009, we estimate that the company's domestic and foreign operating income will reach 4.1 billion yuan, operating profit will reach 15.172 million yuan, and earnings per share (EPS) will drop to 0.019 yuan compared with 2008. Combined with the expectation of industry integration and the industrial development plan of Chongqing, the target price range for the next six months is 5.5-6.8 yuan, with a "neutral" rating.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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