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【申银万国】香溢融通:化解历史风险,向低风险、轻资产业务转型

申萬宏源 ·  Jan 4, 2011 00:00  · Researches

Investment points: The 10-year interim report revenue structure accounts for 91% of retail revenue from trade, interest income from pawnbroking business accounts for 6%, and real estate and hotel catering accounts for 3%. However, pawnbroking and entrustment loans have contributed more than 90% to operating profit. The operating priorities of own capital have changed: currently, the ratio of corporate pawn loans to entrusted loans is roughly 300 million yuan: 500 million yuan. With the gradual tightening of monetary policy in the second half of 2010, interest rates on entrusted loans have also slowly risen from 12% to 18%-20%. The risk of the outsourcing business is relatively low. Currently, the company has surplus cash of 300 million yuan on its books. If it is used entirely for this business, the EPS can be increased by about 0.09 yuan. The guarantee business and leasing business are progressing slowly: (1) Xiangyi Guarantee achieved revenue of 3.24 million yuan in the first half of the year, with a guarantee balance of about 306 million yuan, and a comprehensive annual rate of 2.85%. The company explores the guarantee+direct investment model. For example, Donglan Digital, as disclosed in the interim report, was once the company's guarantee customer, and the company held 1.62%. It is expected that in the future, Donglan Digital will achieve an IPO (2) Xiangyi Leasing to achieve revenue of 10 million yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 11% over the previous year, which is not yet able to provide substantial support for the company's profits. Mitigating historical risks: Deqi and Yuantai Pawnbroker transferred the receivables from the Warren Group project, and another 30 million yuan of bad debt of Feiyue Group has already been accepted and paid the first 15 million yuan by Hongye Construction Group. Reducing the risk of the company's bad debts will help support future performance and liquidity. We judge that the corporate finance business completed a profit of 70 million yuan in 2010, equivalent to an EPS of 0.15 yuan, an increase of 17% over last year's 60 million yuan. The increase was due, on the one hand, to the rise in interest rates on the company's pawnbroking loans, and on the other hand, to the profits brought about by the improvement in the quality of the company's assets. We judge that future companies will actively implement strategies of lightweight assets, intensive management, diversification of profits, and investment diversification. The term of office of the current management of the company ends in April '11. We judge that in the first quarter of '11, the company will continue to maintain a steady and conservative management style and continue to mitigate historical risks. Maintain a neutral investment rating.

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