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【安信证券】星湖科技:行业景气提升+内生改善预期,公司将逐步走出低点,未来发展空间较大

安信證券 ·  Nov 20, 2014 00:00  · Researches

The main business is biochemicals, food additives, feed additives, etc.: The company's business can be divided into three parts: biochemicals, food additives and feed additives: biochemicals include ribavirin, proline, adenine, inosine, guanosine, and valine, etc., with relatively stable profits; food additives are mainly I+G with a production capacity of 10,000 tons, which is currently at the bottom; feed additives include 35,000 tons of threonine and 30,000 tons of lysine. Demand for threonine continues to grow, the impact on overseas production capacity, and the rise in the economy is expected to lead to an increase in performance: the annual growth rate for threonine is around 15-20%, there was a decline in 2013 due to bird flu, and demand recovered significantly after 14 years with the downstream aquaculture industry. The impact on production capacity brought about by the shutdown of Ajinomoto's threonine plant in Brazil in early September, and due to expectations influenced by Meihua Yipin's cooperation, threonine prices rose from 10,000 yuan to nearly 30,000 yuan/ton. The company is producing 35,000 tons of threonine at full capacity, which is expected to bring significant upward profit elasticity. Global threonine production capacity is 50-600,000 tons, and plum blossom production capacity will reach 200,000 tons, increasing concentration. According to supply and demand estimates, the industry will continue to start over 80% in the next 1-2 years. The worst period has passed, and overall profits have improved markedly. Lysine profits are sluggish, and the formation of a double oligopoly pattern is expected to enhance the industry's sentiment; since mid-2011, lysine prices have basically been on a one-sided downward trend, and prices have rebounded after years of losing capacity. After Meihua merges with Yipin, production capacity will reach 570,000 tons (accounting for 15%). Another leading domestic company, Dacheng Biochemical, is under heavy financial pressure (losing several billion yuan in 13 years), and a dual oligopoly pattern has formed. We believe that the industry is expected to break out of the boom point in the next year. The company's 30,000 tons of lysine production has been discontinued, but the equipment maintenance is good, and the future performance of this part of the business is also more flexible. With the introduction of strategic investors, improvements in the company's operations can be expected. There is plenty of room for imagination in the future or in the biochemicals and health food sector: previously, the company's non-public offering plan was reviewed and approved by the Securities Regulatory Commission. The issuance of 95 million shares at a price of 3.85 yuan, Huili Asset was fully subscribed, and after completion, it held 14.72% of the company's shares (Guangxin Group, the majority shareholder holds 14.94%). There is plenty of room for imagination in the future or in the biochemical and health food fields. The performance is facing an inflection point. There is room for improvement in valuation. Buy -A rating, target price of 10 yuan: In the short term, a sharp rise in threonine prices will bring greater upward flexibility in performance. We expect the company's EPS to be -0.37, 0.36, and 0.44 yuan in 14-16, and the performance is facing an inflection point. Strategic investors and expectations of business transformation will bring about fundamental changes in the company. Long-term profit improvements can be expected, bringing the possibility of increasing valuation, giving the company a buy-A rating and a target price of 10 yuan for 12 months. Risk warning: risk of threonine prices falling back, risk of performance falling short of expectations, etc.

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