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【长江证券】哈投股份:持有的金融股权具有良好增值潜力

長江證券 ·  May 26, 2011 00:00  · Researches

First, heat supply became the company's main business development engine. As an important heat and power supply enterprise in the Harbin region, the company's heat and power supply achieved a total operating income of 616 million yuan, accounting for 78.01% of revenue in 2010; however, in recent years, with the rise in raw material prices, especially coal prices, the company's power business growth was weak, and gross margin continued to decline, causing the share of electricity supply revenue to fall from 22.43% in 2008 to the level of 17.03% in 2010; in response to the rise in raw materials and the continued decline in gross margin in the power industry, the company made every effort to improve The gross profit margin of the thermal power business, on the other hand, increased capital investment in new heating projects; in 2010, the gross margin of the company's thermal business was 30.61%, up 4.53 percentage points from the previous year. Furthermore, by the end of 2010, the company had 3 heating projects under construction, with a total investment of 975 million yuan, and completed an investment of 288 million yuan. In particular, the centralized heating project in the Harbin Development and Chemical Zone will build 4 116MW boilers with a total heating area of 8.028 million square meters. The total annual profit after completion will be about 50 million yuan, which will further enhance the company's main business growth space; However, judging from the progress of the projects, the second phase of the various projects under construction has not yet begun, and the central heating project in the Harbin Development and Chemical Zone will not be able to complete and put into operation two boilers until the end of 2011. Therefore, we believe that the company's various projects under construction in 2011 have not yet brought about a significant increase in main business revenue. Judging from the company's non-operating income and expenditure situation in the past three years, the company's non-operating income mainly comes from government subsidies, but in 2010, due to the company's disposal of fixed assets, non-operating income reached 140 million yuan, accounting for 36.65% of operating profit. Since fixed asset disposal profits are not sustainable, we believe that the company's future non-operating income will still mainly come from government subsidies, which will have little impact on performance. Second, investing in Minsheng Bank has benefited a lot. As a corporate shareholder of Minsheng Bank, the company's initial investment costs were low. Before the ban on Minsheng Bank shares was lifted, the company mainly obtained investment income from participating in Minsheng Bank through cash dividends. After the stock ban was lifted, starting in 2006, the company included shares in Minsheng Bank as marketable financial assets, and obtained stable investment income by selling part of Minsheng Bank shares every year; from 2007 to 2010, the company gained a total of 1,028 billion yuan through the sale of Minsheng Bank shares. The average share reached 87.44%. By the end of 2010, the company held a total of 217 million shares of Minsheng Bank, of which 41 million shares were traded financial assets bought by the company in the secondary market in 2010, and the remaining 176 million shares were included in marketable financial assets. Recently, the company's board of directors has passed a resolution to sell no more than 50 million shares of Minsheng Bank within a year on the basis of selling 41 million shares in the secondary market. We expect the company to profit a total of 279 million yuan through the sale of Minsheng Bank shares in 2011. We assume that the company will still benefit from selling Minsheng Bank shares in 2012, The separate sale of 40 million Minsheng Bank shares in 2013 will bring the company stable investment income of more than 200 million yuan per year; overall, the company has obtained stable investment income through participation in Minsheng Bank. Third, analysis of the performance of Fangzheng Securities. Based on its participation in Minsheng Bank and its rich benefits, the company signed an equity transfer agreement with Fangzheng Securities on November 3, 2007 to acquire 10.135% of its shares in Taiyang Securities Co., Ltd. at a purchase price of RMB 852 million. After Fangzheng Securities absorbed and merged with Taiyang Securities, the company became the third largest shareholder of Fangzheng Securities, holding 296 million shares, accounting for 6.44% of Fangzheng Securities's total investment; according to the plan displayed on Fangzheng Securities's website, it will go public in 2011. The predecessor of Fangzheng Securities was Zhejiang Securities. In 2002, Fangzheng Group acquired Zhejiang Securities and changed its name to Fangzheng Securities. In 2006, it absorbed and merged Taiyang Securities Co., Ltd. with an additional registered capital of 1,051 million yuan. After the merger was completed in 2008, the registered capital of Fangzheng Securities was changed to 1,654 billion yuan, and registered capital increased to 4.6 billion yuan in 2010; from 2008 to 2010, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 2,286 billion yuan, 1,385 billion yuan and 1,248 billion yuan respectively; looking at various business developments, in 2010 The company achieved brokerage revenue of 1,793 million yuan, accounting for 58.06% of operating income, of which the brokerage business market share was 1.71%, ranking 17th in the industry, and the average commission rate level in 2010 was 0.0949%, down 31.16% from 2009; up to now, Fangzheng Securities has 84 business outlets, including 45 in Hunan, 17 in Zhejiang, 5 in Guangdong, 3 in Hunan, and 2 in Beijing, Shanghai and Hebei; in 2010, the company achieved self-operated revenue of 485 million yuan, accounting for 15.69% of operating income; in investment banking In terms of business, in 2010, the company achieved net income of 243 million yuan in securities underwriting business, accounting for 7.87% of operating income, and completed 6 stock underwriting, including 2 IPO underwriting, 1 additional issuer underwriting and 3 allotment underwriting. The stock underwriting scale reached 14.362 billion yuan, ranking 17th in the industry. In terms of bond underwriting, Fangzheng Securities completed underwriting for 7 corporate creditors throughout 2010. The underwriting scale reached 15.433 billion yuan, ranking 10th in the industry. In terms of innovative business, as the third batch of securities financing brokerage firms, in 2011/3, Fangzheng Securities had a securities financing balance of 100 million yuan, accounting for 0.13% of the market share; the full year of 2009, it achieved futures business revenue of 121 million yuan, an increase of 33.09% over the previous year, and a total profit of 38 million yuan, an increase of 164.29% over the previous year; Fangzheng Hesheng is a direct investment subsidiary of Fangzheng Securities, founded in August 2010 with a registered capital of 200 million yuan, and has not yet officially started business. Fourthly, the listing of Fangzheng Securities greatly increased the company's market value. Fangzheng Securities's earnings per share in 2008-2010 were 0.50 yuan/share, 0.30 yuan/share, and 0.27 yuan/share, respectively. Combined with the current average PE level of listed brokerage firms, taking into account certain premium factors, it is expected that the price-earnings ratio of Fangzheng Securities will be between 20 and 25 times. Combining the above factors, it is estimated that the issue price of Fangzheng Securities will be 5.4 yuan to 6.75 yuan. After listing, it is expected to bring a market value increase of 1,609 billion yuan to 2,012 billion yuan for Harbin Investment Co., Ltd., and considering shadow stock discount factors, the corresponding increase space is 26%-33%. According to the market value coefficient method for the brokerage business of listed brokerage firms, the market value of Fangzheng Securities after listing is estimated to be about 24 billion yuan. Taking into account the factors that dilute shares by issuing new shares, the market value of the company will increase by about 24%. Fifth, investment ratings and risk tips Although the company's power business performance contribution continues to decline due to the double impact of falling costs and gross margins, the company's thermal business performance grew steadily, and the performance contribution of the project under construction was significant after completion, but due to the construction cycle, the biggest contributor to the company's 2011 performance will still be the investment income from buying shares in Minsheng Bank. It is estimated that in 2011, the company will benefit 279 million yuan by selling shares in Minsheng Bank; taking into account the impact of Fangzheng Securities on the company's valuation after listing, it will bring room for improvement of the company's market value by 24%-33%; considering the future; As for the equity income from the sale of Fangzheng Securities, the company's EPS for 2011 and 2012 is estimated to be 0.43 yuan and 0.51 yuan, corresponding to this year's PE of 22.46 times, giving it a “careful recommendation” rating.

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