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【广发证券】上柴股份:国企改革的先行者,经营拐点已现

廣發證券 ·  Feb 21, 2014 00:00  · Researches

A pioneer in state-owned enterprise reform, reducing staff and increasing efficiency, and optimizing product structure, the company was a pioneer in personnel reform of state-owned enterprises. On the basis of stable main business, the company seized the opportunity of high industry prosperity in 2009 to 11, and achieved personnel optimization. In 2002, it was only 21% of the number of employees in 1995 and 62% of the number of employees in 2007, while the output value per capita in 2012 was 13.8 times that of 1995 and 1.4 times that of 2007. The company is the listed company in the automobile industry with the most obvious reform of reducing staff and increasing efficiency. Furthermore, as the company entered SAIC at the end of 2007, the product strategy and company strategy were further clarified. Low-cost investment improved the product line, and it is expected that the institutional dividends of state-owned enterprise reform will be shared in the future. The fund-raising products have entered a period of growth, and the company's overall competitiveness has significantly enhanced the company's 12-year fixed increase project's 3 new engine products, greatly enriching the company's product line, and the group's internal supporting model can reduce the cost rate during the period. The R series engines are mainly equipped with SAIC Maxus. In January 2004, Chase sold 1,179 units, an increase of 23.7% over the previous year. Recently, our grassroots research revealed that the company's E-series heavy engines with a displacement of 10-12L have entered the promotion stage in small batches and may become the main driving force for SAIC's heavy truck sector in the future. A pioneer in energy saving and emission reduction, the supercharger industry is exploding. The supercharger industry is an energy-saving and emission reduction technology that can be industrialized and at low cost. In 2013, it entered a period of rapid growth. The penetration rate in June increased by 8 percentage points compared to January '12, and the penetration rate of the passenger car industry has nearly doubled. The company holds 40% of the shares in Diamond Heavy superchargers. As sales increase, the return on investment in Diamond Heavy superchargers is expected to explode. The investment proposal company is the vanguard of state-owned enterprise reform, and is also a beneficiary of energy saving and emission reduction. We expect the company's EPS to be 0.24 yuan, 0.29 yuan, and 0.46 yuan in 13-15, corresponding to the current PE price of 45.2 times, 37.7 times, and 24.0 times, respectively, maintaining a “cautious increase” rating. Risk suggests that the company's risk mainly comes from the long climbing cycle of new products; the decline in macroeconomic sentiment.

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