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【天相投资】上海九百:主业盈利能力低下,依赖外部收入支撑业绩

天相投資 ·  Apr 28, 2011 00:00  · Researches

The basic situation of the company's performance: In 2010, the company achieved operating income of 151 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.19%; operating profit of 019 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 46.16%; net profit attributable to the parent company of 29 million yuan, an increase of 126.23% over the previous year; and basic earnings per share of 0.07 yuan, higher than our previous forecast of negative 0.01 yuan. In the first quarter of 2011, the company achieved operating income of 38 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.96%; operating profit of 0.9 billion yuan, an increase of 237.60%; net profit attributable to the parent company of 94 million yuan, an increase of 3496.90%; and basic earnings per share of 0.23 yuan. Profit distribution plan: Since the accumulated undistributed profit is still negative this year, the company decided not to distribute profits or transfer capital from capital reserves to share capital. The company's revenue from various businesses continues to decline, and is supported by external revenue: the company's main business is divided into industry (37.52% of revenue), commerce (54.70% of revenue), and travel and catering services (5.25% of revenue). In 2010, the company's revenue from various businesses continued to decline, with industrial revenue falling by 20.57% (falling for three consecutive years, with an average annual decline of 15%), commercial revenue falling 15.51% (falling for three consecutive years, with an average annual decline of 16%), and revenue from the tourism and catering industry falling 1.49% (it has been falling for two consecutive years, with an average annual decline of 8%). The company's profit is entirely supported by investment income and non-operating income. The company's annual investment income is 75.93 million yuan, 4.04 times the operating profit, and net non-operating income and expenditure of 13.26 million yuan, accounting for about half of the total profit. Although the company's net profit has increased, there are many uncertainties about profitability due to heavy reliance on external revenue. It may be difficult to sustain, and large-scale reform measures are needed in the main business. Expenses during the period are huge, and management expenses account for the largest share: the company requires huge expenses every year, and during that time, the cost rate has reached close to 70%, which is close to the highest level in the industry. In particular, management expenses account for half of all expenses. The company's operating efficiency is low, and expenses are one of the important reasons that have dragged down the company's performance. The company's internal management needs to be further adjusted and improved to enhance the efficiency of the company's operation and management. Otherwise, it is difficult to improve performance positively, and the company's commercial real estate industry should also make structural adjustments. The company plans to strengthen network development and operation to increase commercial real estate revenue: In the 2011 plan, the company plans to combine adjustments in the commercial layout of the Jing'an Temple business district and Jing'an Nanjing Road to strengthen efforts, optimize the network structure, and increase commercial real estate revenue. At the same time, the company will step up research and development efforts on “Zhengzhang” products, expand sales scale, and launch high-end laundry services in due course, in an effort to make a breakthrough in the laundry chain business. Increase the scale of general agents for alcoholic products and enhance market influence. We believe that internal management and management of operating efficiency are indispensable reform choices for companies, otherwise plans will be hampered and difficult. Revenue continued to decline in the first quarter of 2011, and non-operating income increased the most: in the first quarter of 2011, the company's operating income continued to decline, falling by 23.96%. There was no recovery in the profitability of the main business, and the main business continued to be weak. The company's performance is still supported by external revenue. Investment income is about 1.47 times operating profit, and non-operating income increased net by 84.74 million yuan (no such income in the same period last year), of which disposal of fixed assets, intangible assets, and other long-term investments recovered 200 million yuan in cash for the company. We are still not optimistic about the company's ability to operate its main business in 2011. Profit forecast and investment rating: The company is expected to achieve earnings of 0.09 yuan, 0.10 yuan, and 0.11 yuan per share in 2011-2013, respectively. Based on the closing price of 7.86 yuan on April 27, the corresponding dynamic price-earnings ratios are 86 times, 78 times, and 71 times, respectively. Compared with the predicted price-earnings ratio of the commercial sector of 24 times in 2011, the current valuation of the company is significantly higher than the sector's expectations. Considering the limited room for performance growth, the company still maintains a “neutral” investment rating. Risk warning: The company's profit depends on many external factors, and the profit prospects are also very uncertain.

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