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【国泰君安证券】中路股份:迪士尼商业综合体项目迈出坚实第一步

國泰君安 ·  Feb 26, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Incident: Zhonglu Co., Ltd. invested RMB 50 million to establish Zhonglu 35 Tourism Development Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary, to lay the foundation for the construction of a world-class large-scale, multi-functional comprehensive cultural tourism service industrial zone integrating lifestyle, shopping, entertainment, culture, and art. Comment: Maintain an “gain” rating and a target price of 34.2 yuan. The establishment of Zhonglu 35 Tourism marks a solid first step in the Zhonglu Disney subsidiary commercial complex project. Without considering subsequent uncertain equity investment income, the company's net profit for 2014-2016 is estimated to be 9.14 million yuan, 39.22 million yuan, and 7.4 million yuan, respectively, and the corresponding EPS is 0.03 yuan/0.12 yuan/0.02 yuan, respectively. Maintain the “gain” rating of Zhonglu shares and the target price of 34.2 yuan. With the establishment of Zhonglu 35 Tourism, the commercial complex project has taken a solid first step. The company announced in December 2014 that it will cooperate with the American 35 Group to jointly develop a comprehensive cultural tourism service park. The commercial complex will directly handle the passenger flow of Shanghai Disneyland. We believe that the establishment of this joint venture marks a solid first step in advancing the Zhonglu Disney supporting commercial complex project. The subsequent promotion process of the commercial complex is expected to include three steps: (1) carrying out the overall planning of the commercial complex project; (2) carrying out project approval; and (3) project approval and beginning implementation. The economic benefits of Disney's supporting projects can reach 10 billion yuan. We believe that Zhonglu Co., Ltd. will be the biggest beneficiary of the completion and opening of Shanghai Disneyland. Currently, the market is not fully aware of the company's development prospects for building a comprehensive cultural tourism service park. The American Dream Mall (not yet in business), which is comparable in size to the shopping center proposed by Zhonglu Co., Ltd., has an estimated operating area of 750,000 square meters, receives 40 million visitors a year, and has annual sales revenue of 3.7 billion US dollars. Zhonglu Co., Ltd. plans to build a shopping center with a business area of more than 470,000 square meters. It is expected to receive 10 million visitors a year, and its economic benefits can easily reach 10 billion yuan. Core risk: The approval process for commercial complex projects falls short of expectations.

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