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【国泰君安证券】香溢融通:价量双升趋势明确

國泰君安 ·  Mar 29, 2011 00:00  · Researches

The performance was in line with expectations, and financial services performed well. In 2010, the company achieved operating income of 1,225 million yuan, an increase of 32% over the previous year; net profit of 94 million yuan, an increase of 52% over the previous year. Annual EPS is 0.21 yuan, BPS is 3.10 yuan, and ROE is 6.96%. Domestic trade revenue increased 33% year on year, which was the main factor driving revenue growth; asset impairment losses were reduced by 92.3%, which directly contributed to rapid growth in performance. The development of financial services was also better than expected, and the main businesses, pawnbroker/guarantees, and loans, have all increased significantly. The distribution plan is 0.5 yuan for 10 people. Pawnbroking business: The year-end pawnbroking loan balance was 397 million yuan, an increase of 28% over the previous year, and achieved annual operating income of 0.72 million yuan, an increase of 15% over the previous year. The increase was mainly due to real estate mortgage pawnbroking loans; the gross profit margin of the pawnbroking business was 95%, up 2.4 percentage points from the previous year. Entrusted loans: The balance at the end of the period was 670 million yuan, an increase of 84% over the previous year, and interest income of 72 million yuan, 3.3 times that of the previous year. The total balance of pawnbroking and entrusted loans was 1.07 billion yuan, and interest income was 144 million yuan, up 58% and 71%, respectively, from the previous year. We estimate that the interest rates (loan interest rates) of the two are 1.77% and 1.17%, respectively, a significant increase from 1.32% and 0.85% the previous year. The guarantee business is growing rapidly. Compared to pawnbroking and entrustment loans, the guaranteed leverage ratio is high, and the potential for scale expansion is greater than the previous two. This is also a part of the business that the company is focusing on developing. The annual transaction amount of guarantee business and the year-end balance were 1,025 million yuan and 406 million yuan respectively, 5.1 times and 2.7 times the previous year, respectively. We believe that the company is a stock benefiting from a typical credit crunch. It is mainly characterized by a double increase in the price of financial services such as pawnbroking and entrustment loans. Under the benchmark assumption that the entrustment loan growth rate for this year and next two years is 30%, and the monthly interest rates are 1.8% and 2.1%, respectively, the company's 2011-2012 EPS is expected to be 0.35 yuan and 0.50 yuan, respectively, and the corresponding growth rates are 70% and 40%. The dynamic PE is 33 times higher, but in order to reflect the company's rapid growth expectations and the company's scarcity in the A-share market, we still maintain a cautious increase in holdings rating.

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