The results of the 2013 three-quarter report fell slightly short of our expectations. According to the company's three-quarter report, operating income was 2.41 billion yuan, up -8.59% year on year, and net profit attributable to parent company was 140 million yuan, up 1.56% year on year. The fully diluted EPS was 0.164 yuan, slightly lower than our expectations. The decline in construction machinery prosperity has dragged down the company's engine growth rate. The company's share of construction machinery sales has gradually declined, currently accounting for about 50%. The prosperity of the construction machinery industry declined in the first three quarters, and the growth rate of construction machinery sales declined, dragging down the company's engine business. Fund-raising projects have been put into operation one after another, but it will take time to achieve large-scale sales. The company's fund-raising projects were put into operation one after another in the third quarter. Among them, we expect to sell 0.2,500 medium and light engines throughout the year. Heavy-duty engines in technical cooperation with Austrian AVL will be mass-produced in the 3rd quarter of 2013, mainly for SAIC Iveco Hongyan, Valin, and Foton. We expect to sell 10,000 units this year. The company already has the capacity to produce 4L-12L LNG engines and is expected to share the rapid growth of the LNG industry. The lightweight engines are mainly supplied by companies such as Chase, Xiamen Financial Travel, and Jiulong. We expect to sell 12,000 vehicles throughout the year. We believe that with SAIC Motor Group's backing, the capacity utilization rate for fund-raising projects will remain high, and the gross margin for commercial vehicles is high, so the company's profitability is expected to gradually increase. Hishiju turbochargers continue to grow at a high rate. The investment income of the company's joint ventures in the first three quarters was 115 million yuan, compared to only 230 million yuan in the same period last year. The sharp increase in investment income is mainly due to a sharp increase in sales in the Shanghai Lingzhong turbocharger business. Furthermore, the newly established Ryoheavy Engine (50% equity) business is expected to reverse losses in the fourth quarter. The company's gross margin for the first half of the year was 19.72%, up 1.67 percentage points from the same period last year, mainly due to the company's promotion of lean production and lower costs. Investment advice: Lower the profit forecast and maintain the “buy-A” investment rating. The target price for 12 months is 18.00 yuan. In view of the decline in engine sales for construction machinery and the continuous increase in fundraising projects until next year, we have lowered our profit forecast for this year. We expect revenue growth rates from 2013 to 2015 to be -1%, 48.2%, and 61.1%, respectively. Net profit attributable to the parent company grew at 9.3%, 47%, and 100.5%, respectively. After full dilution, EPS was 0.26 yuan, 0.38 yuan, and 0.75 yuan respectively, maintaining the “buy-A” investment rating. The target price for 12 months was 18.00 yuan, which is 24 times the corresponding 2015 valuation. Risk warning: Sales of fund-raising projects fell short of expectations; the turbocharger market was being squeezed by new energy vehicles; automobile sales declined sharply; and raw material prices rose sharply.
【安信证券】上柴股份:青黄不接,静待新业务
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