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【国泰君安】香溢融通:类金融业务的拓荒者

國泰君安 ·  Jul 26, 2010 00:00  · Researches

Xiang Yi Rongtong has clearly defined a “two wings in one” development strategy that mainly focuses on finance and is complemented by commerce and real estate. Xiangyi Rongtong is the first A-share listed company whose main business is pawnbrokers and other types of finance. Financial services are positioned to provide relatively diversified financing services for small and medium-sized enterprises. Currently, financial services such as pawns, guarantees, and leasing are cooperating with each other. Among them, the pawnbroker business already owns two brands, Yuantai and Xiang Yi Deqi, and is in a leading position in Zhejiang. Policies support diversified financial services for small and medium-sized enterprises, and liquidity contraction will continue for some time. This provides a rare policy environment and market environment for the development of such financial services. Historically, high risks have been accumulated during rapid development, which is the main reason for the rapid contraction of the pawnbrokerage business in the past two years. After these risks are gradually mitigated, the pawnbroker business will return to a steady growth trajectory; while guarantees and leasing will enter a period of rapid growth in the initial phase. Commerce and real estate are two important aspects of the company's business. After taking the initiative to clean up high-risk commodity trade, both revenue scale and gross margin are expected to rise steadily, but against the backdrop of rapid development of financial services, the status of the commercial trade business will decline further; real estate business reserves are scarce, and although they can contribute revenue steadily, it is difficult to develop significantly. Driven by the resumption of rapid growth in finance such as pawnbrokers, guarantees, and leasing, and steady growth in other businesses such as commerce and real estate, the company's performance will return to a steady growth path. We expect the company's EPS to reach 0.16 yuan, 0.19 yuan, and 0.23 yuan respectively in 2010-2012, with performance growth rates of 18%, 20%, and 20% respectively. The dynamic PE of Xiangyi Rongtong is 59 times, far higher than the valuation level of similar overseas companies, and far higher than that of A-share market financial companies. We believe this is due to the company being in a transition period. After the risks accumulated in history have been cleared up, the company's performance will maintain a steady growth trend. Therefore, for the first time, we gave a neutral rating and a target price of 10 yuan.

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