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【国泰君安证券】中路股份:继续看好高空风能及商业综合体项目

國泰君安 ·  Mar 19, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Key investment points: Maintain an “increase in holdings” rating and a target price of 34.2 yuan. The company's performance in 2014 exceeded our expectations, and we continue to be optimistic about the development prospects of high-altitude wind energy projects and commercial complex projects promoted in an orderly manner by Zhonglu Co., Ltd. Considering that Zhonglu is already a PE company, with Dingli's joint equity transfer income in 2015 and the contribution performance of high-altitude wind energy projects in 2016, we have raised the company's profit forecast. The company's net profit for 2015-2016 is estimated to be 115 million yuan and 137 million yuan (originally estimated 39.22 million yuan and 7.4 million yuan), respectively, corresponding to EPS 0.36/0.43 yuan. The results slightly exceeded our expectations, and the sharp increase in net profit stemmed from a drop in income tax rates. In 2014, the company achieved operating income of 662 million yuan, an increase of 0.39% over the previous year, and net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 14.18 million yuan, an increase of 44% over the previous year. The company's performance exceeded our expectations, and the net profit growth rate was much higher than the revenue growth rate. The main reason was the sharp drop in the corporate income tax rate in 2014. According to the announcement, Shanghai Zhonglu Industrial, a subsidiary of the company, was recognized as a high-tech enterprise in 2014, and corporate income tax was reduced at a 15% rate (valid from 2014.1.1 to 2016.1.1). Layout businesses such as high-altitude wind energy and commercial complexes are progressing in an orderly manner, laying the foundation for the company to take off. We continue to be optimistic about the development prospects of high-altitude wind energy projects and commercial complex projects promoted in an orderly manner by Zhonglu Co., Ltd.: (1) High-altitude wind energy projects: The 400-megawatt high-altitude wind power generation project proposed by the company will greatly enhance the company's profitability. The built 400MW installed capacity can contribute 1.17 billion yuan in annual sales revenue and 650 million yuan in profit after tax. The commercialization of the project is expected to progress faster than expected; (2) Commercial complex project: Zhonglu Co., Ltd. will be the biggest beneficiary of the completion and opening of Shanghai Disneyland. We estimate that the proposed shopping center on Zhonglu will have a business area of more than 470,000 square meters, an annual reception volume of 10 million people, and the economic benefits can reach 10 billion yuan. Core risk: High-altitude wind energy and commercial complex projects are progressing less than expected.

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