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【东方证券】东方集团:控制人再次间接增持公司股权,看好公司发展

東方證券 ·  Feb 22, 2011 00:00  · Researches

Incident: The company issued an announcement stating that 63 natural persons, including Bai Lianxiang, Sun Dianying, and Jin Zhongtang, shareholders of Dongfang Industrial, the majority shareholder of the company, transferred a total of 4.429,900 shares of Dongfang Industrial to Oriental Group Investment Holdings Co., Ltd. After the transfer, Oriental Group Investment Holding Co., Ltd. held a total of 31.20% of Oriental Industrial's shares. Our view: 1. The actual controller has once again indirectly increased the company's shares and is optimistic about the company's development prospects. Following the transfer of shares in December, Oriental Group Investment Holdings once again transferred 4.43 million shares of minority shareholders' shares of Dongfang Industrial, the majority shareholder of the company, accounting for 1.09% of Dongfang Industrial's shares. After increasing its holdings, Oriental Group Investment Holdings held a total of 31.20% of Oriental Industrial's shares. Since Zhang Hongwei, the actual controller of the company, indirectly controls the equity ratio of Oriental Group Investment Holdings to reach 94%, this increase can be seen as another indirect increase in the company's shares by the actual controller. Currently, the actual controller Zhang Hongwei's share interest in the company has reached 18.37%. We believe that this shows the actual controller's confidence in the company's future development, and also means that the company's future capital operations are likely to accelerate. We do not rule out the possibility that the actual controller will continue to indirectly increase the company's shares in the future. 2. The “cadmium rice” incident will raise people's awareness of rice food safety and raise the requirements for rice quality. Earlier media reported that about 10% of rice in many Chinese markets exceeded the cadmium standard, and people who eat “cadmium-rich” rice for a long time are prone to “pain and pain.” (http://finance.sina.com.cn/g/ 20110214/08349369391.shtml) The report pointed out that most of these “cadmium rice” are distributed in indica rice growing areas in the south. Southern hybrid rice has a relatively well-developed root system, so it is easier to absorb cadmium in the soil. Our analysis believes that the “cadmium rice” incident will further raise consumers' awareness of rice food safety and raise consumers' requirements for the quality of rice. In the future, along with the improvement of people's living standards, demand for high-quality rice is gradually increasing. On the other hand, the “cadmium rice” incident will also affect the market pattern of japonica rice and indica rice to a certain extent. We expect the market share of northeastern rice to rise at an accelerated rate in coastal regions in the future (currently this trend is already evident in Shanghai; indica rice accounted for more than 80% of the Shanghai market in the 90s, and the market share for japonica rice has risen to about 50% in recent years). The “national banquet rice” produced by the company, Wuchang rice, is a typical representative of high-quality varieties of japonica rice in Northeast China. It is the direction of future demand for consumers in coastal regions to improve their living standards, and it is expected that the company will also benefit from overall consumption upgrades. 3. It is expected that the company will directly benefit from the increase in food prices. Recently, global agricultural product prices have risen sharply due to frequent global disastrous weather. Many parts of the northern part of the country are also suffering from droughts. As of February 20, despite an early round of snowfall and rainfall, the drought situation has abated somewhat, but 91.78 million mu of winter wheat were still affected by the drought in the eight provinces of Hebei, Shanxi, Jiangsu, Anhui, Shandong, Henan, Shaanxi, and Gansu, of which 16.82 million mu were severely affected by the drought. According to our analysis, the rise in food prices this year will probably be no less than last year. The main reasons are: 1) due to the La Niña climate, disastrous weather is frequent, and the risk of reducing grain production is very high; 2) the supply and demand for food varieties such as corn is more tight than last year; 3) the major grain exporters, led by the United States, are driving up global agricultural product prices. Therefore, in the context of rising global agricultural product prices, the company, as a raw grain trader, will directly benefit from this. 4. Profit forecast and risk tips. We maintain the company's 2010-2012 EPS profit forecast of 0.13 yuan, 0.32 yuan, and 0.52 yuan. Based on the previous trading day's closing price of 8.80 yuan, the corresponding dynamic price-earnings ratios for 2010-2012 were 69X, 28X, and 17X, maintaining the company's “increased holdings” rating. Risk warning: 1) Sales of small-packaged rice fell short of expectations; 2) the company's expenses exceeded expectations; 3) profits from assets such as Oriental Homeland continued to deteriorate.

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