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【中信建投】宁波海运:业绩受到双重影响

中信建投證券 ·  Mar 24, 2009 00:00  · Researches

Event: Announced the annual report, achieving revenue of 1,467 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.65%, and net profit of 304 million yuan, an increase of 75.11% year-on-year. Earnings per share were 0.53 yuan, and a cash dividend of 2 yuan (tax included) was introduced for every 10 shares transferred to 5 shares. Brief review: The industry boom has declined sharply, and dry bulk shipping, which was once very prosperous, has rapidly reversed under the double influence of the global economic recession and surge in capacity. Since this year, the coastal bulk freight price index has fallen by more than 40% compared to last year's average. Since the economy is difficult to improve in the short term, this year's freight prices will continue to be sluggish. The company's freight contract has yet to be announced, but judging from the situation in the industry and peers, a sharp decline is a foregone conclusion. Highway performance fell short of expectations. The highway business began operation in the second half of 2008. The Mingzhou Expressway achieved revenue of 48.87 million last year. Due to high financial expenses, the final loss was 88.74 million, and the loss was higher than expected. Affected by the economic slowdown, road traffic growth fell short of expectations, and the loss period is likely to increase. However, the cost of road assets is relatively low, and there is a certain replacement premium. Capacity expansion is progressing steadily. After financing at the beginning of last year, the company originally planned to buy two used freighters, then instead purchased two new freighters, with a total capacity of 84,000 DWT, which will be put into use by the end of May this year. Total capacity will increase to 72 DWT by the end of this year, an increase of 13.28% over the end of last year. Performance may come back again. This year, the company will be affected by both the downturn in the industry and road losses. Performance will return to a low point, and the following year, performance will gradually increase as the industry recovers and road management improves. The current valuation is too high, and the neutral rating will be maintained within half a year.

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