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【天相投资】宁波海运:业绩好转仍待后年

天相投資 ·  Oct 29, 2009 00:00  · Researches

The 2009 three-quarter report shows that in January-September, operating income was 650 million yuan, down 43% year on year; operating profit loss was 23.22 million yuan, compared to 360 million yuan in the previous period; net profit attributable to owners of the parent company was 7.02 million yuan, down 97.6% year on year; and basic earnings per share were 0.008 yuan. Net profit attributable to the parent company was drastically reduced due to lower contract freight rates and changes in consolidated statements. The average freight rate of the company's COA contract in 2009 was reduced by about 50% compared to 2008. Due to the sharp decline in transportation prices, the company's shipping business revenue during the reporting period fell by about 43% compared to the same period last year, and gross margin decreased by 15.27 percentage points over the same period of the previous year; the consolidated scope of the company's profit statement increased Ningbo Shipping Mingzhou Expressway Co., Ltd. and Ningbo Shipping Xitielong Industrial Co., Ltd. was reduced. The net profit attributable to the parent company at the end of the reporting period was 35.09 million yuan due to changes in the scope of merger. Among them, the company's financial expenses increased by 87.05% over the same period last year, mainly due to the fact that Ningbo Shipping Mingzhou Expressway Co., Ltd. project loan interest expenses increased by 88,69,000 yuan in expenses over the same period last year, affecting net profit attributable to the parent company - 45.23 million yuan. There was a slight shift in capacity to international markets. Coastal electricity and coal transportation is still the company's main business. Since 2009, the international dry bulk transportation market has rebounded rapidly, while domestic coastal transportation prices have been weak and competition is fierce. The company has increased its share of cargo transportation in the international market, mainly coal and ore from Australia. Compared with 2008, revenue from the international market is expected to increase significantly. Losses on the Mingzhou Expressway will continue in the short term. The Mingzhou Expressway, which invested 4.3 billion yuan, was consolidated in the second half of 2008, with revenue of 48.87 million yuan and loss of 88.74 million yuan in that year. Since 2009, there has been an increase in traffic compared to 2008, but the road network effect of the new road has not been formed, and a period of market cultivation is needed. On the other hand, since 2009, Zhejiang's foreign trade has been greatly affected by the financial crisis, and transportation demand has declined, which has also had a negative impact on the highways invested by the company. The increase in traffic volume is not obvious compared to 2008. Considering the high fixed costs in the early stages of operation of expressways, it is generally impossible to achieve profit even in the first three years. It is expected that the Mingzhou Expressway will continue to lose money in 2009 and 10, but the magnitude will gradually decrease. Profit forecasting and valuation. We expect the company's EPS in 2009 and 2010 to be -0.12 yuan and -0.21 yuan respectively, maintaining the company's “neutral” investment rating.

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