Main points of investment:
Maintain the "overweight" rating and raise the target price to 62 yuan. We believe that China Road will be the biggest beneficiary of the completion and opening of Walt Disney Company Paradise in Shanghai. Considering the opening of the world's largest Walt Disney Company flagship store in Shanghai Lujiazui on May 20, which will kick off the 2015 Shanghai Walt Disney Company theme, Walt Disney Company's theme certainty has been further improved, raising the company's target price to 62 yuan and maintaining the "overweight" rating. In terms of profit forecast, we maintain our previous point of view and expect the company's net profit from 2015 to 2016 to be 1.15 / 137 million yuan, corresponding to EPS0.36/0.43 yuan.
The opening of the world's largest Walt Disney Company flagship store will kick off the 2015 Shanghai Walt Disney Company theme. According to the Walt Disney Company, the Walt Disney Company Store in Shanghai will open on May 20. We believe that May is a very good time to lay out the theme of Walt Disney Company. With the opening of the Walt Disney Company store in Lujiazui as the starting point, the follow-up publicity will be gradually strengthened. We expect that Shanghai Walt Disney Company will officially open the park in the spring of 2016 and conduct a trial operation by the end of 2015, that is, learning from the experience of Hong Kong, the park will be officially opened after a few months of trial operation. Before the official opening of the park, the strengthening of publicity (including the opening of this flagship store), the trial opening of the Shanghai Walt Disney Company subway line in July, the announcement of the opening time of the park, and the trial operation at the end of the year will form a strong theme catalysis.
Zhonglu will be the biggest beneficiary of the completion and opening of Walt Disney Company Paradise in Shanghai, and the economic benefits of Walt Disney Company supporting projects will reach 10 billion yuan. We think that at present, the market has not fully realized the development prospect of the company's construction of cultural tourism integrated service park. The American Dream Shopping Center, which is the same size as the proposed shopping center of Zhonglu Road (not yet open), is expected to have a business area of 750000 square meters, with an annual reception of 40 million tourists and an annual sales revenue of US $3.7 billion. The business area of the proposed shopping center of China Road is more than 470000 square meters, and the annual reception volume is expected to be 10 million people, and its economic benefit can reach 10 billion RMB.
Risk hint: Shanghai Walt Disney Company can't open the park on time.