Main points of investment:
Major shareholders have strong strength and resources to support and promote business development. The former Guizhou Hualian belongs to the regional trade and tourism company. In 1999, Beijing Tianchuang Real Estate became the largest shareholder and injected 85% of its Tianchuang Real Estate shares. The company has been transformed into a real estate development enterprise. In 2005, the shares held by Beijing Tianchuang Real Estate and Beijing Sunshine Real Estate were transferred to Beijing Energy Investment Group, and Jingneng Group became the largest shareholder with a stake of 45.26%.
In addition to real estate development, Jingneng Group's main business includes electric energy, thermal power supply, energy conservation and environmental protection, and financial securities. by the end of last year, it had total assets of 137.1 billion yuan and income of 29 billion yuan, with investment in many provinces in China. By contrast, the development of real estate business lags behind. At present, it is involved in five cities, with assets of 5 billion yuan and annual income of 10-2 billion yuan.
Major shareholders also intend to increase the development of the real estate business, which plays an important role in the company's business development in terms of resource support, which is mainly reflected in the capital and network resources, the company's cost control and the acquisition of high-quality projects. In recent years, the average gross profit margin is more than 50%, and the net profit rate is more than 20%.
Sihe House of Lords is still the main force, and the Tianjin project should not be optimistic. The company has five projects in Beijing, Tianjin, Yinchuan, Dalian and Hohhot. The Hohhot project has been basically wound up and will not be involved in the short term. There are four projects with an unsettled area of 1.8 million square meters. In addition, there are two equity participation projects in Lianyungang and Jiaozuo, with a total construction area of 2.33 million square meters.
Beijing Sihe Upper House is the main project in recent years. It is located at the entrance of Caishikou, Xuanwu District, and belongs to a scarce building in Beijing, with a total of 5 buildings, with a total floor area of 200000 square meters and a residential part of 150000 square meters. It launched Building 1 in March and Building 2 and Building 3 in December. The last batch of buildings 4 and 5 with a total of 60, 000 square meters were launched in July this year. By the end of November, about 30, 000 square meters were subscribed, with an average price of 54400 per square meter. The remaining 30, 000 buildings are expected to be sold out in 14 years. It is the main source of profit for the company in the next two years.
Tianjin Haihe City, located in the East Xinjiang plate, is the planned area of Tianjin Free Trade Zone. The total construction area of the project is 770000 square meters. It was originally planned to be launched before the end of 13 years. Due to certification reasons, it was postponed to 14 years, and the first batch of sales volume was about 100000 square meters. Other listed real estate enterprises in the region only have Vanke East Coast. Dongjiang plate is geographically slightly remote, 56 kilometers away from the urban area, and the supporting facilities in the region are not perfect. Vanke East Coast has not launched a new plate in 13 years since it was put on sale in July 12, so the de-transformation of the company's project can not be expected to be too high. The unit price will be about 9000 yuan.
The Yinchuan Jingnengchuan World Project is on sale for 2 phases, with a total of 230000 square meters. It opened in October with a unit price of 6500 yuan. By the end of November, the cumulative decarbonization rate was 60%, and the progress was relatively slow. Dalian Amber Bay project is applying for a construction permit, the first batch of construction is about 100000 square meters, it is estimated that some housing will be launched in 14 years.
There are plenty of resources available for sale next year, and "recommendations" will be given. The subscription amount signed by the company in 13 years is estimated to be between 20 and 2.5 billion. In 14 years, there are 30, 000 square meters left by Sihe House of Lords and 100000 square meters by Hai and Cheng Xin. Sichuan World Phase 2 continues to push, Phase 3 may enter the market, and some of Amber Bay can be pushed. The available resources are richer than those in 13 years, and the annual sales are expected to be about 3 billion.
In terms of development strategy, the company will focus on the east in the future. Beijing, Tianjin and Dalian are the main layout cities. There will be no big changes in the system and mode of operation, and the strategy of intensive cultivation will continue, while the resource integration of state-owned enterprises, which is currently hotly discussed in the market, is unlikely to be involved in the short term. We believe that the impact of the concept of Tianjin Free Trade Zone on the secondary market will continue. Although the lack of maturity of regional commercial facilities will affect the speed of project removal, Tianjin Sea and City is a rare listed real estate enterprise project within the scope of policy planning, and its volume is relatively large. It accounts for 40% of the company's total reserves, driven by conceptual catalysis, and the stock price still has room to rise in the later stage.
Sihe House of Lords is still the main source of profit in the past two years. Most of the 30,000 subscribers this year can be settled, and the rest can be settled next year, with a net interest rate of 25%, which can contribute 1.7 yuan per share in total. It is expected that the company will achieve earnings per share of 0.86yuan, 1.25yuan and 0.77 yuan respectively in 13-15 years, and the three-year dynamic PE 7X, 5X and 8X will be rated as "recommended".
