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【兴业证券】东方通信:业绩逐季好转,全年高增长预期不变

興業證券 ·  Oct 29, 2014 00:00  · Researches

Incident: The company released its 2014 three-quarter report: From January to September 2014, the company achieved revenue of 2.74 billion yuan, up 9.3% year on year, and net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 97.87 million, down 0.08% year on year; in July-September, the company achieved operating income of 980 million yuan, up 38.14% year on year, and net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 112.28% year on year. Comment: Performance improved quarterly. The high annual growth expectations remained unchanged. From January to September 2014, the company achieved operating income of 2.74 billion yuan, up 9.3% year on year, and net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 97.87 million, down 0.08% year on year. Among them, in July-September, the company achieved operating income of 980 million yuan, up 38.14% year on year, and net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 112.28%. The main reason is: 1) Revenue growth stemmed from trade business and main financial electronics and communications electronics business growth. 2) The sharp increase in profit comes from: 1) the financial electronics business benefited from rapid development by the localization process and became the largest ATM machine customer of the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and received a large CRS order from Everbright Bank; 2) Communications Electronics benefited from private network market development, settlement of some orders began, and revenue contribution increased dramatically; 3) Revenue growth and cost control led to a sharp decline in management fee rates, driving the three fee ratios down 4 percentage points year on year. We believe that the fourth quarter was the peak of the company's revenue settlement and profit contribution (especially private networks). As the localization of financial electronics continues to advance and domestic public security network/subway network/government affairs network continues to bid, the company's main business net profit is still expected to grow as high as 50% or more. Short-term fourth quarter orders are expected to be catalyzed, benefiting from the localization of financial electronics and the explosion of public security networks in the medium to long term. In the short term, with the completion of connectivity tests organized by the Ministry of Public Security, local public security PDT bidding will gradually begin. As the peak season in the fourth quarter approaches, short-term orders are expected to be catalyzed. In the medium to long term, the company's performance has begun to show an accelerated improvement trend. We will not change the company's 14-year high performance growth expectations: 1. The digital cluster business is about to explode, and the company benefits are obvious: in mid-March, the company won the bid for the Dalian Public Security Private Network Project (along with the subway) with an amount of 90 million. It is the first major order since the company officially entered the public security private network digital cluster business in recent years (since the end of 2012). It is of great significance, marking that the company's digital cluster business can be accumulated through this project. Goods and implementation The experience will drive the company's digital cluster business to continue to develop rapidly. We judge that the company's current on-hand orders have now greatly exceeded 100 million, exceeding last year's full year revenue, and that the private network will turn losses into profits throughout the year. We believe that the company has TETRA and PDT technology, relies on China's Putian, and has outstanding resource endowments. It is expected that orders on a digital cluster scale will continue to be implemented in the future, the sharing industry will explode, and grow rapidly. 2. The financial electronics business has maintained high growth: In terms of the ATM business, this year is a major procurement year for ICBC, one of the company's main customers. As ICBC's largest ATM supplier, the company will benefit greatly; at the same time, the company's CRS circulation machine has surpassed Everbright Bank and is expected to be promoted by ICBC in the future; furthermore, the company is expected to achieve a breakthrough by the Agricultural Bank this year. Furthermore, Silver Star Finance, which was acquired earlier by the company, has expanded the company's financial business product line, which helps the company provide comprehensive financial electronics solutions and promotes the rapid development of the company's financial electronic business. Therefore, we believe that in 14-15, the company will benefit from the explosion of the public security digital cluster industry and the rapid growth of the ATM business to achieve explosive growth in performance. Profit forecast: Looking at 14 years, the company's digital cluster business began to grow rapidly, and the financial electronics business grew rapidly, and the company's equity incentive conditions required the company's 14-year performance to increase by more than 52% year-on-year. Currently, performance is showing an accelerated growth trend. Therefore, we judge that the company's 14-year performance will explode by more than 60%. Looking at the medium to long term, we are optimistic that the company will benefit from the large-scale construction of public security networks and the construction of electronic financial solutions. We maintain the 14-16 EPS at 0.26 yuan, 0.39 yuan, and 0.50 yuan. We continue to pay attention to the implementation of the public security private network, reaffirm the “increase in holdings” rating, and suggest intervening on a dire scale. Risk warning: The promotion of the public security network falls short of expectations, and competition in the industry is fierce

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