1. Overview of the incident As of August 26, 2013, the website of the Beijing Municipal Housing and Construction Commission shows that the sales of the company's quasi-existing housing four-house upper house project in Beijing are nearing completion. There are a total of 349 sets of pre-sale certificates for the project, of which 110 have been registered online, 132 have been pre-ordered, and 107 are undergoing qualification verification. 2. Analysis and judgment. The highlight of this year's performance is that the Beijing Sihe Upper House project obtained a pre-sale certificate on July 3 this year. It is a quasi-existing housing sale, and is expected to be handed over in December this year. The project approved sales of 349 units, with an average price of 55065 yuan/square meter, and marketable resources of 3,336 billion yuan, making it the highlight of this year's sales and settlement. The release of room for this year's results depends on the sales and settlement of the project. The number of online filing units in the Sihe Senate is close to 1/3, and the annual sales volume is expected to exceed 3.6 billion yuan. According to the website of the Beijing Municipal Housing and Construction Commission, there are no marketable properties for the project. The number of online registration sets is 110, close to 1/3, while 132 sets have already been booked and 107 are in the process of qualification verification. If things go smoothly, the filing may be basically completed this year, and the sales volume of the project will reach 3.3 billion yuan. In addition to the Yinchuan Tianxia River and Tianjin Sea and City projects, the annual sales volume is expected to exceed 3.6 billion yuan. Provide strong financial support for subsequent project development. The settlement situation of the Sihe Senate affected the rate at which performance was released, but the sharp increase in performance this year is almost a foregone conclusion. We made a sensitive estimate of the company's performance this year by the Sihe Senate based on the settlement ratio. Assuming that the project settles 75% this year, the company's annual EPS is 1.15 yuan; if 50% is settled, EPS is 0.80 yuan; if only 30% is settled, it can contribute 0.51 yuan in EPS. However, the company's EPS for the full year of 2012 was 0.37 yuan. Even with a 30% settlement, the annual performance increased by about 38%. This year's high performance growth is a foregone conclusion. 3. Profit Forecast and Investment Suggestion The company's performance in the past two years has been mainly affected by the settlement of the Fourth House of Lords project. Observing the company's historical performance, it has been found that the company's performance has fluctuated greatly, and there is no obvious intention of smoothing performance. Assuming that the house handover goes smoothly, the Sihe Senate settles 75% this year, then the EPS for the next three years will be 1.15 yuan, 0.57 yuan, and 0.69 yuan, respectively, corresponding to 4 times the PE in 2013. NAV is valued at 8.15 yuan, and the current stock price is discounted by 41%. Give it a “Highly Recommended” rating. 4. Risk warning: The Fourth Court of Senate's settlement this year fell short of expectations; project sales in other regions fell short of expectations; real estate regulation exceeded expectations, etc.
【民生证券】京能置业:四合上院已无可售房源,今年业绩增长几成定局
The translation is provided by third-party software.
The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
Risk Disclaimer
The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
Got it
Risk Disclaimer
The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
Got it
Write a comment
0 0 0
LikeLoveLaughing CryRespectEmmSadAngry
Tap to Select a Mood
- 分享到weixin
- 分享到qq
- 分享到facebook
- 分享到twitter
- 分享到微博
- 粘贴板
Use the share button in your browser
to share the page with your friends
Tap here to share
No comments yet. Write one.
Latest
12:58
Liu Qiao: If there is a special fiscal plan to resolve receivables, it could eventually raise the SSE Composite Index by 600 points.
SSE Composite Index-2.01%
12:52
JPMorgan's Zhu Haibin: Boosting Consumer spending has become a consensus, but there are still differences in policy practice.
JPM-0.66%
12:39
The "Shanghai Declaration" on AI in Chinese medicine has been released.
Statement
This page is machine-translated. Futubull tries to improve but does not guarantee the accuracy and reliability of the translation, and will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by any inaccuracy or omission of the translation.