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【天相投资】南京熊猫:符合年报“前低后高”预测,公司三季度业绩明显好转

天相投資 ·  Oct 27, 2009 00:00  · Researches

Performance review: In line with the “previous low, then high” forecast in our annual report, the company's performance in the third quarter improved markedly. The company achieved operating income of 591 million yuan in the first three quarters, a year-on-year decrease of 23.91%; achieved operating profit of 37.22 million yuan in the first three quarters, a profit of 46.83 million yuan in the same period last year; realized net profit attributable to the parent company of 38,58 million yuan, compared with a profit of 45.74 million yuan for the same period last year; and EPS of -0.06 yuan. Among them, the company achieved operating income of 192 million yuan in the third quarter, a year-on-year increase of 18.91%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.67%; realized operating profit of 10.27 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 66.51%; realized net profit attributable to the parent company of 11.39 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 58.01%; and EPS of 0.021 yuan. Highlight: There was a clear month-on-month recovery in the third quarter of 2009 due to macroeconomic and investment returns. (1) The main business spans a wide range and is greatly affected by macroeconomics. The company's main products include electronic manufacturing products, electronic information products, mechanical and electrical instrument products, and satellite communication products. The performance of the main business was poor in the first half of fiscal 2009, and the second half of the year began to improve somewhat. (2) Investment income rebounded sharply. The company achieved investment income of 51.35 million yuan in the third quarter, but -18.27 million yuan in the second quarter. The main reason is that the profits of ENC (Nanjing Ericsson Panda Communications Co., Ltd., 27%) and BMC (Beijing Soaiputian Mobile Communications Co., Ltd., 20%), which participated in the company's shares, rebounded sharply in the third quarter. Expectations: We judge that the company will continue to improve on a month-on-month basis in the fourth quarter. (1) The positive domestic macroeconomic trend has basically been established, and market demand for electronic information products is gradually picking up. (2) The fourth quarter is a concentrated period for revenue recognition for communication equipment companies. In 2009, domestic wireless equipment spending increased dramatically, and ENC (Nanjing Ericsson Panda Communications Co., Ltd., 27% of the company's shares) should perform even better. Profit forecast and rating: In summary, we maintain our judgment that the company's revenue in 2009 was low before and after high. At the same time, net profit will rise to a certain extent, and there will be an overall improvement in 2010. The EPS for 2009 and 2010 is estimated to be 0.01 yuan and 0.05 yuan respectively. Based on the closing price of 7.65 yuan on October 27, 2009, the corresponding dynamic price-earnings ratio is clearly too high, maintaining the company's “neutral” investment rating. Risk warning: (1) risk of falling prices of electronic communication products; (2) risk of uncertain investment returns; (3) risk of macroeconomic correction.

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