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【广发证券】宁波海运:散货运输市场供求失衡,公司业绩大幅下滑

[GF Securities Co., LTD.] Ningbo Shipping: there is an imbalance between supply and demand in the bulk transport market, and the company's performance has declined sharply.

廣發證券 ·  Mar 27, 2012 00:00  · Researches

According to the main data of the annual report, in 2011, the company realized operating income of 1.27 billion yuan (+ 3.39%), operating profit loss of 5.57 million yuan, a decrease of 50 million yuan over the same period last year; non-operating income (sale of ship assets, real estate) reached 60 million yuan, an increase of 46 million yuan over the same period last year; and net profit of 37 million yuan, realizing EPS0.06 yuan.

After deducting non-recurring profit and loss, the company's net profit in 2011 is 958000 yuan.

Annual report comments and prospects: (1) Shipping business: the market in 2012 is still not optimistic. (1) the gross profit margin has fallen sharply: affected by the rise in fuel costs and the downturn in the domestic bulk transport market, the company's 2011 shipping business gross profit margin is 14%, down 8 percentage points from 2010. In 2011, the company's average freight rate was 53 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as in 2010, but fuel prices rose about 30% year on year.

2012 will bear the double whammy of falling freight rates and rising fuel costs: a slowdown in China's economic growth will lead to a slowdown in coal demand growth, while a sharp increase in capacity in the coastal market will depress freight rates.

We expect the gross profit margin of the company's shipping business to fall to 10% in 2012, and the gross profit of the company's shipping business is 108 million yuan, down about 22.7% from the same period last year.

(2) Highway business: after the opening of the eastern section around the city, the traffic flow is expected to increase. In 2012, the profit and loss balance company is expected to increase highway traffic volume by 1.45% year on year, bicycle tolls by 14.3%, operating profit of 178 million yuan, and net profit of-29 million yuan (+ 53 million yuan). At the end of 2011, the eastern section of Ningbo around the city was opened to traffic, and the road network effect is expected to play in 2012. The traffic flow of the western section of Ningbo around the city has a breakthrough growth. We expect the traffic volume of the western section of Ningbo to grow by 15% in 2012, and the company's highway business will achieve a net profit of 305000 yuan. Break even.

The risks suggest that China's economic growth has slowed and the coastal transport market has declined further; the growth rate of traffic in the western section of Ningbo around the city is lower than expected.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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