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【天相投资】京能置业:四合上院项目结算,带来业绩释放

天相投資 ·  Apr 21, 2011 00:00  · Researches

In 2010, the company achieved operating income of 1,064 million yuan, an increase of 459.32% over the previous year; operating profit of 304 million yuan, an increase of 1015.46% over the previous year; net profit attributable to the parent company of 125 million yuan, an increase of 687.05% over the previous year; and realized diluted earnings per share of 0.28 yuan. The distribution plan is to distribute a cash dividend of 0.5 yuan (tax included) for every 10 shares. From January to March 2011, the company achieved operating income of 221 million yuan, an increase of 751 times over the previous year; operating profit of 67.455 million yuan, the same period last year was -13.8666 million yuan; net profit attributable to the parent company was 274.739 million yuan; the same period last year was -1,2574 million yuan; and diluted earnings per share were 0.06 yuan. Projects have been settled one after another, and performance is expected to be released. The company currently has four major projects: Yinchuan Jingneng Tianxachuan, Hohhot Jingneng Garden, Beijing Sihe Upper House, and a real estate project in the Dongjiang port area of Tianjin Port. 1). The fourth round of settlement by the upper house brought about performance release. According to the regional distribution of revenue, it is estimated that in 2010 it was mostly settled by the Fourth House of Representatives project, and the gross margin of the project could reach 52.82%. The Sihe Upper House project has a construction area of about 150,000 square meters above ground, and the company owns 62% of its interests. According to data from the Beijing Housing Administration Network, up to now, the project has obtained two pre-sale licenses, with a total pre-sale area of 89,400 square meters. Settlement in 2010 is mainly for Building 1, while Buildings 2 and 3 are also expected to be settled in 2011; at the same time, it is noted that the average sales price of Buildings 2 and 3 has increased compared to Building 1, which is expected to further increase the gross profit margin of the project. 2). Other project conditions. The total saleable construction area of the Jingneng Tianxachuan project is about 700,000 square meters. The company owns 70% of the interest in the project. In 2009, the company confirmed revenue of 153 million yuan through the sale of projects under construction (construction area 74,700 square meters). The Jingneng Garden project has a construction area of 146,000 square meters, and the company owns 100% of the interest. Settlement is expected to begin in 2011. The Tianjin Port Dongjiang Port Area project was added to the company during the reporting period. In September 2010, the company acquired 49% of the shares of Tianjin HNA East Coast Development Co., Ltd. at a price of 24.5 million yuan (consolidated list), thereby participating in the development of the Tianjin Port Dongjiang Port Area real estate project. The project is located in the southern part of the Dongjiang port area of Tianjin, covering an area of 394,800 square meters and a ground floor area of about 774,600 square meters. 3). Advance payments have increased significantly. Advance payments at the end of 2010 were 1,727 million yuan, an increase of nearly 10 times over the previous year, including 715 million yuan for the Jingneng Tianxia River project; 772 million yuan for buildings 2 and 3 of the Sihe Upper House; and 238 million yuan for Jingneng Garden. At the end of the first quarter of 2011, the amount received in advance increased further to 1,905 million yuan. Earnings forecasts and investment ratings. The company is expected to achieve earnings of 0.69 yuan and 0.88 yuan per share respectively in 2011-2012. Based on the recent closing price of 6.34 yuan, the corresponding dynamic price-earnings ratios are 9 times and 7 times, respectively. The valuation is relatively low, maintaining the “increased holding” investment rating. It should be noted that the company is currently small in scale, and its performance depends to a large extent on the four-way upper house project, and the sustainability of performance is still uncertain.

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