Overall plan
The company plans to buy 10.8 billion yuan (including 1.427 billion shares and 1.5 billion yuan in cash), 100% shares in 12 international electric power companies and 45% shares in Xingrun coal coke Linfen mining industry. At the same time, the company plans to issue non-public shares to no more than 10 specific investors, the amount raised is not more than 3 billion yuan, and the issue price is not less than 6.59 yuan per share: of which 1.5 billion yuan is used as the cash consideration of the underlying assets; 808 million yuan is used to participate in three coal mines; the remaining funds are used to supplement working capital.
The first step: to acquire the underlying assets, the profit increases greatly, and the profit commitment ensures the stability of performance.
The target of this transaction is 4 coal mines (rights and interests with a production capacity of 4.78 million tons) and 12 coal railway trading companies. According to the profit commitment of International Electric Power and Xingrun Coal Coke, the net profit of the target for 14-16 years is not less than 1.073 billion yuan, 1.313 billion yuan and 1.363 billion yuan. After the completion of the acquisition, we expect the company to earn 0.56,0.66 and 0.69 yuan per share in 2014-16, which is 58%, 72% and 65% thicker than the current one, respectively.
The second step: supporting financing, diluting performance slightly and reducing the proportion of major shareholders.
Some of the funds for supporting financing are proposed to participate in three coal mines of Yangquan Company, a transportation and marketing group, with an equity production capacity of 1.38 million tons. After matching financing, with reference to the company's performance commitment, we estimate that the company's earnings per share in 2014-16 are 5%, 6% and 7% thinner than those after the first step of the acquisition.
There is a lot of room for future asset injection, but there is little possibility of short-term injection.
The listed company is the coal listing platform of the Coal Marketing Group, which plans to have a production capacity of 106 million tons per year in 2015. However, due to the current mine asset ownership, license and other aspects of more substantive problems, and the profitability of most coal mining enterprises is poor, we expect that the possibility of coal mine asset injection is small in the short term.
Excluding the acquisition, the company is expected to earn 0.35 yuan, 0.37 yuan and 0.39 yuan per share in 13-15 years.
Excluding the above acquisition and supporting financing, the company's 14-year earnings per share is 0.37 yuan, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 14 times; after considering the completion of the acquisition and supporting financing, it is estimated that its 14-year earnings per share is 0.52 yuan, with a price-earnings ratio of 9.2 times, which has a valuation advantage. In view of the fact that the company has more room for extension growth and higher performance certainty, we give a buy rating.
Risk hint: the progress and profitability of the injected assets are lower than expected.