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【银河证券】中航重机:主业面临拐点后的大幅增长,激光成型等新产业明年见效

中國銀河 ·  Sep 3, 2012 00:00  · Researches

There was an inflection point in performance. Future performance is expected to exceed expectations in the second quarter of 2012. The company drastically reversed its loss situation in the first quarter, reaching 0.08 yuan in EPS in a single quarter and 0.05 yuan in the first half of the year, indicating that the company has quickly broken out of its trough. It is expected that business performance will continue to rise in the third quarter. Coupled with confirmation of investment income, the third quarter report may experience a peak in performance. It continues to rise in the medium to long term. Forging, hydraulics, and new energy jointly support performance growth. Orders from Hongyuan and Andafactory in the forging sector began to resume in the second quarter, which not only played an important role in the recovery of the quarter's performance, but also played an important role in the recovery of performance in the third quarter; from the perspective of demand and production capacity, the medium- to long-term growth trend of the forging and casting business is improving. The hydraulic business will be driven by new products from Suzhou and Wuxi next year, and there is room for growth in sales scale and gross margin. The new energy business will increase its efforts to reduce losses in the second half of the year, and it is expected that losses will be reversed next year. The three emerging industries have become important new growth points. The three emerging industries that the company has cultivated in recent years: laser molding, strategic metal recycling, and special and high-end equipment manufacturing, will begin operation next year and begin contributing to the company's performance. Although the contribution to next year's performance will be small, due to the large potential of the industry and strong product profitability, there will be great support for the company's business performance in 2-3 years. There is a possibility that the operating platforms for these new industries, such as China Aviation Laser and China Airlines Shangda, will be listed separately in the future. The company has a strong strategic position, and there are many favorable expectations for the future. The company's main business, forging and casting, has a relative monopoly in the field of materials processing in the aviation industry, and the laser molding and strategic metal recycling business are also strategic projects from the top down. The company faces many opportunities for strategic support from national and industrial policies: including special engine plans, progress and financial support for laser molding and strategic metal projects. Forecasts, valuations, and ratings expect the company's EPS in 2012-2014 to be 0.42 yuan, 0.40 yuan, and 0.55 yuan, and the dynamic price-earnings ratio for 2012 and 2013 is 20 times and 21 times, respectively. Give a “Recommended” rating.

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