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【国都证券】宁波海运:发行可转债投资价值分析

國都證券 ·  Jan 10, 2011 13:43  · Researches

1. Clause analysis (1) Resale protection is weak. The conditional resale clause for maritime transfer bonds lasts 2.5 years after the expiration period, and the resale protection effect is weak. (2) The credit rating for convertible bonds is average, there are no guarantees, and the coupon interest is low. The credit rating of maritime transfer bonds is AA, and there are no guarantees. The interest income from a single convertible bond is 5.6 yuan, compensatory interest is 1.4 yuan, and the total interest income is 7 yuan, which is relatively low. (3) If all shares are transferred, the impact on EPS dilution is relatively large. Ningbo Shipping has a total share capital of 871 million shares, of which 564 million are tradable shares, accounting for 64.74% of the total share capital. If all of the converted bonds are converted to shares, the total share capital can be increased by about 18.05%, and earnings per share can be diluted to 84.71%, which has a relatively large impact. (4) The maximum number of copies that can be preferentially subscribed by the original shareholders is 7.143,400, accounting for 99.21% of the current issuance scale. The allocation amount for the original shareholders was 0.82 yuan per share. If all of the original shareholders participated in the placement, the placement scale would be 7.143,400 copies, accounting for 99.21% of the issuance scale. 2. Value analysis We believe that when the price of the underlying stock fluctuates around 4.97 yuan, the reasonable market value of convertible bonds should be between 127.60 and 131.04 yuan. If the price of the underlying stock falls 20% to around 3.97 yuan before listing, then the reasonable value range of convertible bonds will be in the range of 104.02 to 113.43 yuan, and a fall below face value is a low probability event. 3. Investment Strategy The issuance volume of offshore trading bonds is 720 million, which is too small. The convertible has an average credit rating and no guarantee; resale protection is weak, and coupon interest is low. If all shares are transferred, the impact on EPS dilution will be relatively large. Since the returns of issued convertible bonds in the primary market are quite impressive, and the probability that maritime transfer bonds will fall below face value is small, we believe that the company's original shareholders will actively participate in priority placement. It is estimated that the current priority placement ratio is 60%, so the remaining amount for online and offline purchases is about 288 million yuan. We estimate that the amount of effective online and offline subscription capital for maritime transfer bonds will be around 140 billion yuan. If the actual priority allocation amount accounts for 60% of the total issuance scale, and the amount of subscription capital is as above, then the winning rate for online and offline purchases of maritime transfer bonds is about 0.21%. If the first-day increase range for convertible bonds is 27%-31%, then the annualized yield range for online and offline purchases is 2.90%-3.33%. The subscription yield is not very attractive, so investors are advised to participate appropriately.

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