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【申银万国】汉商集团:以商业地产促进商业主业,物业重估增值显著

[Shenyin Wanguo] Han Merchants Group: commercial real estate is used to promote the main business, and the property revaluation increases significantly.

申萬宏源 ·  Oct 14, 2010 00:00  · Researches

Have high-quality commercial resources of "three circles and one center": Han businessmen have high-quality resources of "three circles and one center" in Wuhan, including Hanyang Shopping Mall in Zhongjiacun Business District, 21 Shopping Center in Wangjiawan Business Circle, Wedding Photo material City in Jianghan Road Business Circle and Wuhan International Convention and Exhibition Center (including Xinwuzhan Shopping Plaza), realizing the coordinated development of retail, convention and exhibition industry, real estate industry and wedding tourism.

Han Shang Ginza project will significantly improve the performance in the next few years: Han Shang Ginza is located in the Zhongjiacun business district adjacent to Hanyang Shopping Mall, and is the main position for Han businessmen to "promote the development of commercial real estate development". It is also a bridgehead to upgrade the format and build a high-end shopping center. The project integrates multi-dimensional commerce, MINI housing, LOFT BOX offices and other forms of business, and will become the largest one-stop urban complex in Hanyang area, which is one of the main driving forces for the future growth of Han businessmen. With the completion of the Ginza project early next year, it is expected to bring about 840 million yuan in income, while conservatively expects to create a net profit of more than 62 million yuan, resulting in explosive growth in the performance of Chinese businessmen.

The convention and exhibition industry may face transformation: it is not only a challenge, but also an opportunity: Wuhan will open a new exhibition center in two years' time, when the Han business convention and exhibition center can only do small-scale exhibition and marketing. However, if Han businessmen turn the exhibition into commerce and turn the exhibition hall into shops, then the operating area of 126000 square meters will be added, which will become another potential driving force for explosive growth in the future.

High-quality commercial real estate resources provide a safety margin of 12.36 yuan per share: the company owns "three circles and one center" stores, the property is basically its own, all belong to high-quality scarce commercial property. Among them, Hanyang Shopping Mall has an operating area of 23000 square meters, 21 Shopping Mall has an operating area of 120000 square meters, and New Wuzhan Shopping Mall has an operating area of 30, 000 square meters. In addition, it also includes 126000 square meters of the Convention and Exhibition Center, 10, 000 square meters of Ginza, 8000 square meters of Wedding City, and 9000 square meters of Yang Si warehouse, with a total area of about 311000.

The value of commercial real estate will exceed 2.5 billion yuan, and RNAV will reach 12.36 yuan.

First-time rating increase: the main business of Chinese businessmen will maintain steady extension and connotative growth, and future performance growth will significantly benefit from projects such as Han Shang Ginza, 21 Shopping Center expansion, land injection development, and so on. The transformation of the convention and exhibition center also opens room for imagination for the future. We estimate that the EPS of Chinese businessmen from 2010 to 2012 is 0.024 yuan, 0.178 yuan and 0.258 yuan. Considering that Han Merchants are currently one of the commercial listed companies with the smallest market capitalization, there is still a lot of room for market capitalization to rise, giving them an "overweight" investment rating for the first time. The target price gives RNAV a 20% discount of 9.9 yuan, with 18% room for increase.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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