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【广发证券】通宝能源:探索转型凸显变革动力,维持公司买入评级

[GF Securities] Tongbao Energy: Exploring transformation highlights the driving force for change and maintains the company's buying rating

廣發證券 ·  Apr 28, 2015 00:00  · Researches

The 14-year performance increased 47% year on year, and the decline in revenue led to a decline in 15Q1 performance.

The company achieved net profit of 560 million yuan in 2014, an increase of 47.4% over the previous year, equivalent to earnings of 0.49 yuan per share. Among them, the single-quarter EPS was 0.17 yuan, 0.09 yuan, 0.11 yuan, and 0.12 yuan respectively. The company achieved net profit of 140 million yuan (equivalent to earnings of 0.12 yuan per share) in the first quarter of '15, a year-on-year decrease of -26.3%. It is estimated that this was mainly due to a decline in revenue due to a decline in electricity sales.

The profit of thermal power improved dramatically, and the gas business successfully reversed losses.

The company generated 5.62 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity in 2014, down 4.1% from the previous year, but benefiting from continued falling coal prices, the thermal power business achieved a profit of 214 million yuan in 2014, a sharp increase of 270% over the previous year. The company's gas business achieved net profit of 19.41 million yuan in 14 years, successfully reversing losses. It mainly benefits from the increase in gas volume and the average price of gas sold. The company sold 204 million cubic meters of gas in 2014, an increase of 28.3% over the previous year.

Lower electricity prices have impacted revenue, but costs are expected to decline at the same time.

The company will lower feed-in tariffs for coal-fired units and terminal sales prices from April 20. The company expects that this feed-in tariff adjustment will reduce the company's revenue in 2015 by 134 million yuan. However, since coal prices are still in a downward channel, it is expected that the company's cost side will decline simultaneously after the electricity price is lowered this time.

Exploring coal-to-power integration highlights the company's driving force for change.

The company pointed out in the core competitiveness analysis of its annual report that it will? Relying on Jinneng Group's resource advantages and industry advantages, integrated coal and electricity cooperation will be implemented, mature and high-quality assets will be injected in due course, the space for industrial development will continue to expand the space for industrial development, and push the company to achieve a leapfrog development of 'comprehensive energy'.? Although under the current Internet boom, the subject of integrated coal and electricity transformation is not very sexy, the more important meaning behind it is that it shows that the company's business development has come to a standstill without being investigated by the chairman of the board, in particular? Achieve strategic growth in incremental assets? It provides huge room for imagination to be injected into the Group's assets in the future.

The company's valuation advantage is obvious. Maintenance? buy? ratings.

The company's 2015-2017 EPS is expected to be 0.50, 0.52, and 0.55 yuan respectively, corresponding to about 20 times the current PE, which is still only half of the average PE level of other power grid companies. As power reform deepens, there is still plenty of room for the company's future valuation repair. Maintaining the company? buy? ratings.

Risk warning: The usage hours of thermal power are lower than expected, and grid electricity sales are declining.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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