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【海通证券】东方通信:逻辑逐步兑现,业绩逐季好转

海通證券 ·  Oct 29, 2014 00:00  · Researches

Event: The company released its three-quarter report on the evening of October 28, 2014. The company released its three-quarter report, with revenue of 2,738 billion yuan, an increase of 9.3% over the previous year, and net profit of 97.87 million, the same as the previous year. Comment: The company's performance improved quarter by quarter: As can be seen from the results of the three quarters in 2014 (-48% in the first quarter, -23% in the interim report, and 0% in the first to third quarters), the company's performance is improving quarter by quarter, and the growth rate is accelerating in a single quarter. However, the decline in performance in the first half of the year was not due to problems with the company's industry and operations, but rather because industry opportunities increased, the company increased investment to seize the high ground in the market. However, these investments were not able to generate immediate benefits. At the same time, the company had 70 million non-recurring profits and losses last year. If this item is deducted, the company's performance growth rate is still good. E-finance import substitution is accelerating: The trend of electronic financial equipment import substitution is becoming more obvious. The company is currently one of two companies that have passed the “national encryption algorithm” test for financial equipment (the other is radio and television). With the deepening popularity of information security and the maturity of China's own technology, a broad market space is gradually opening up. The company is currently actively participating in the all-in-one bidding for major customers such as the Industrial and Commercial Bank and the Postbank. If it wins the bid, it will have an impact on the changing pattern of the electronic financial equipment market in the next three years. Within 2-3 years, it is entirely possible to replicate the current achievements of Radio and Television Express. The leading trend in private networks is beginning to appear: this year is undoubtedly a year of weak growth for companies in private networks. The company has already obtained orders of between 400 to 500 million dollars, far surpassing its competitors, and is already in a situation where it is completely destroyed. Compared with 2014, the scale and amount of private network tenders have increased dramatically. The large order of 300 million dollars in Zhuhai went to Oriental Communications, representing the beginning of a complete replacement of overseas products by Chinese companies. With the economic transformation, civil pain is inevitable, mass incidents will gradually increase, and social public safety demand will grow like the video surveillance industry. The development trend of the industry is undoubtedly positive and positive, and the company has great potential. Information security is progressing steadily: Internet financial fraud is gradually increasing along with the gradual deepening of the development of the Internet. The company began relevant research in 2013, and now it is already cooperating with several Internet giants to gradually solve these problems using the company's technology accumulation at the bottom of communication physics. There is huge room for follow-up. Profit forecast and investment advice: We predict that the company's 2014-2016 EPS will be 0.259,0.529 and 0.755 yuan, and PE is 38.6, 8.3 and 13.2 times. Considering that the company's business is in the lead or oligopoly position, the industry is in the early stages of an explosion. At the same time, 2015-2017 is the exercise period of the company's equity incentives, the company is motivated to release performance, with a target price of 16.8 yuan, 31.7 times PE in 2015, maintaining the buying rating. Risk warning. The development of the industry falls short of expectations, and the market system is at risk.

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