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【天相投资】浪潮软件:主打烟草行业应用软件解决方案或提升盈利能力

天相投資 ·  Nov 2, 2009 00:00  · Researches

From January to September 2009, the company achieved operating income of 230 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.13%; net profit attributable to owners of the parent company was 15.29 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.89%. The third quarter achieved revenue of 120 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59.94%, and net profit attributable to owners of parent companies of 6.35 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 45.75%. Achieved basic earnings of 0.08 yuan per share in January-September. The consolidated gross margin increased in January-September. The consolidated gross margin for January-September was 21.56%, up 1.38 percentage points from the previous year; the consolidated gross margin for the third quarter was 20.87%, down 0.98 percentage points from the previous year, down 2.25 percentage points from the second quarter. We think there are two main reasons: first, because demand for IT gradually rebounded after the financial crisis, revenue increased compared to the same period last year, which raised the overall gross margin level; second, because the gross margin of the company's second-largest business computer and application products was at a low level for a long time, this part of the business was not consolidated, leading to an increase in overall gross margin in 2009. The decrease in the financial expense ratio has led to a decrease in the period cost rate. The management expense ratio for January-September was 22.99%, up 6.60 percentage points from the previous year; the financial expense ratio was -1.99%, compared to 0.22% in the same period last year, mainly due to the large number of repaid loans and bank deposits; and the sales expenses rate was 4.77%, down 0.46 percentage points from the previous year, mainly due to changes in the scope of the consolidated statements. Focus on applying software solutions or improving profitability in industry segments such as tobacco. Since 2008, the characteristics of application software industry segmentation and market segmentation have become more and more obvious. The company's business is mainly concentrated in application fields, the reuse rate of software technology is low, and the R&D and implementation costs of projects have gradually increased, thus affecting profitability to a certain extent. After 2009, the company positioned industries with advantages such as tobacco, focusing on highly competitive product solutions such as tobacco i3, and further increased investment in research and development of basic, supporting, and platform software technology; ITIL operation and maintenance management products developed in-house became more mature, further accelerating the commercialization process of application software. Furthermore, the company no longer holds shares in Shandong Langchao E-Government Software Co., Ltd., which is a strategic move for the company to carry out product restructuring. We believe that the company's software-integrated product technology is easy to replicate and the competition is fierce. There are many IT companies that target solutions for the tobacco industry. In the long run, they cannot support continuous profit growth. We expect the company's EPS for 2009-2010 to be 0.18 yuan and 0.24 yuan respectively. Based on the calculation of the closing price of 13.42 yuan on October 30, the corresponding dynamic price-earnings ratio is 74 times and 55 times, respectively. The current valuation is too high, giving the company a “neutral” investment rating.

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