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The company announced on July 11: 1, the company intends to sign an agreement with Ningyi Ye to transfer 100% equity of Ningyi subsidiary to acquire land for old-age industrial projects; 2, the company terminates the non-public offering and gives up the acquisition of the landscape company; 3, the company resumes trading on the 14th.
Comments:
The big healthy pension industry is the next gold digger in China.
On February 18, I published a special topic on the pension industry, "there is a place for the elderly, who can rely on?", and made an in-depth analysis of the broad prospects of China's pension industry. The article holds that the current aging situation in China is already very grim, and from a social and cultural perspective, there will be a difficult situation of providing for the aged in China in the future. "the decline of filial piety" and the "national policy of family planning" are bound to make "institutional pension" a realistic choice for the elite born in the 1950s and 1980s. China's "institutional pension industry" has a broad space for development in the future, and it is undoubtedly a sunrise industry. It is expected that the outbreak of the pension industry in the future may be similar to the outbreak of e-commerce in recent years-"the non-mainstream demand of the former non-mainstream population" has become the mainstream demand because "the non-mainstream population has become the mainstream group".
According to international standards, if the proportion of elderly people over 60 or 65 in the total population is more than 10% and 7%, then the country will achieve an aging population. In 2013, the number of elderly people in China has exceeded the 200 million mark, reaching 202 million, and the aging level has reached 14.8%. Therefore, China has already begun to enter an aging society. With the acceleration of aging in the future, the elderly population in China will gradually rise, and the "clothing, food, housing and transportation" of the elderly will become the focus of social attention.
In 2010, the total pension of the elderly in China will reach 838.3 billion yuan; in 2020, it will reach 2.8145 trillion yuan; by 2030, the total pension will reach 7.321 trillion yuan. At present, the expenditure that can be used by the elderly to buy products for the elderly has reached 400 billion yuan. To sum up, the elderly group in China has become an important consumer army, and the pension industry will become the next gold digging point in our country.
N has already planned to change and become the vanguard of the Nuggets.
The company announced on October 22 last year: fully aware of the huge demand and opportunities brought by the aging population to China's pension industry, it decided to invest 500 million yuan to set up a special pension industry company. committed to the research, development, operation and management of the pension industry. The incident is a symbol for the company to start a strategic transformation, fade out of the original real estate business and enter the big healthy pension industry.
Steady progress in transformation and integration of medical resources
Medical and care services are not only the two aspects that the elderly need most, but also the most important part of the large healthy pension industry. As early as March this year, the company began to vigorously promote the integration of medical resources, and successively signed strategic cooperation agreements with Jiangsu people's Hospital and Jiangsu Renyi Hospital, agreeing to make use of their respective advantages to jointly develop the healthy pension industry. In our research report "another Big step in Transformation" at the beginning of March, we analyzed the incident and concluded that the restructuring of public hospitals should be the general trend. Jiangsu Renyi Hospital Investment Management Co., Ltd., which jointly participated in the cooperation between Phoenix shares and Jiangsu Provincial people's Hospital, is an enterprise that can provide hospital investment consulting services and solutions. therefore, once the provincial people's hospital is reformed, Phoenix share investment should be reasonable. As an indispensable supporting part of the pension industry, medical resources will lay a solid foundation for the development of the company's pension industry.
On March 23, the company disclosed in its 2013 annual report that "this year clearly regards the healthy pension industry as a major strategic development direction", and "vigorously carries out in-depth negotiations and cooperation with relevant institutions at home and abroad" and "will start the cooperation project as soon as possible". In particular, it is worth mentioning that the company disclosed in its annual report that "it will actively carry out strategic layout around the whole industrial chain of the pension industry, including medical care, nursing, intelligent services, culture, real estate development for the aged and ecological agriculture". The introduction of "third-party long-term funds" and professional pension operation and management institutions, investment institutions. In this regard, I believe in the research report "embracing the Future" on March 24th that the investment payback period of the pension industry is longer, but as an emerging industry, the potential for sustained growth is better, and TVg is more obvious. If it is operated properly, it is not difficult for the average annual rate of return to be higher than WACC, so the industry is favored by long-term funds. For foreign capital, because of the arbitrage space of risk-free interest rates at home and abroad, it is more attractive. From the classification of long-term funds in the current layout of the pension industry, because the debt side has long-term advantages, and in line with the relevant policies of the CIRC, it has more advantages compared with other funds. Moreover, as the actual controller of the company is the people's Government of Jiangsu Province, the "introduction of third-party funds" to develop the pension industry is also in line with the general direction of the current reform of state-owned enterprises to promote mixed ownership.
On June 18, we saw a piece of news on WIND-- Phoenix Group, the company's controlling shareholder, cooperated with Nanjing Municipal Government and Jiangsu Cancer Hospital to invest in the construction of a world-advanced proton heavy ion hospital to further improve the company's layout in the big healthy pension industry.
Take a small step and take a big step forward in the pension industry
The company signed a cooperation proposal with Jiangsu Ningyi Ye to buy 100% equity in Ningyi subsidiary (the company holds 283mu of land in Yixing City, Jiangsu Province, with a price of no more than 2 million / mu) for professional development of pension industry projects. The incident marks another big step forward in the company's layout of the pension industry from strategic planning to implementation, which, together with the previously integrated medical resources, constitutes an important part of the company's large healthy pension industry system.
Abandon non-core business acquisitions and concentrate resources
Because the pension industry is a special comprehensive industry derived from the first, second and traditional tertiary industries, covering housing, nursing, medical care, rehabilitation, health, management, sports activities, catering services and other related industries, it involves a wide range of areas. it needs to invest more money, so it is not suitable to get involved in diversified investment in non-core business. Therefore, the management of the company, based on long-term planning, finally gave up the acquisition of landscaping landscape company, demonstrating the will to concentrate resources and do a good job in the healthy pension industry.
The big healthy pension industry has broad prospects, the company is determined to transform and maintain the recommended rating.
2014 is the first year of the pension industry, which contains a broad market space. On the one hand, after the founding of the people's Republic of China, the first batch of baby boomers will gradually enter the elderly, and the following elderly population will increase sharply; on the other hand, the issue of providing for the aged will be paid more attention by the government. policy breakthroughs may be made in the areas of old-age industrial land, government support, financial support and tax concessions to fill the gap. Under the background of the gradual acceleration of aging in China, the big healthy pension industry will become the next gold digging point in China.
As a pioneer of the transformation of the Nuggets, the company shows the complete transformation of the company from integrating medical care to winning pension projects, from setting up pension industry subsidiaries to giving up non-concentric business acquisitions. the attitude and determination to expand and strengthen the healthy pension industry. We expect that, without taking into account the impact of the relevant large health pension business, the company's EPS from 2014 to 2016 will be 0.6 EPS 0.76 Maple 0.97 yuan, corresponding to PE13/11/8 times, P/NAV0.7, and maintain a "recommended" rating.