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【浙商证券】宁波富达年报点评报告:2012年业绩基本锁定,投资有安全边际

浙商證券 ·  Mar 8, 2012 00:00  · Researches

Investment points: In 2011, the company achieved a net profit attributable to the parent company of 88.21% year on year. On the evening of March 8, the company announced the 2011 report, achieving operating income of 3.886 billion yuan, an increase of 24.46% over the previous year; realized net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 638 million yuan, a sharp increase of 88.21% over the previous year, and achieved earnings of 0.44 yuan per share, which is basically in line with expectations. The main reason why the growth rate of net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was much higher than the increase in operating income during the same period is that the share of commercial housing sales revenue with high gross margin increased from 36% to 41%, cement gross margin increased by 5.6 percentage points over the same period, and the increase in investment income from the home appliance disposal business. 2011 profit distribution plan: Based on the company's total share capital of 1,445 million shares on December 31, 2011, it is proposed to distribute a cash dividend of 1 yuan (tax included) to all shareholders for every 10 shares. Advance accounts collected at the end of the period reached 3,285 billion yuan, and the company's advance accounts at the end of the 2012 basic performance lockdown period reached 3,285 billion yuan, of which at least 2,848 billion yuan will be converted into revenue from the company's real estate business in 2012. The main projects involved were Qinglinwan Phase II (Phase 4 and 5), Shanshui Yipin (Area A), and Villa Town Phase 1 (Tailhouse). Based on the company's operating target of 5 billion yuan, and after deducting commercial real estate revenue (770 million yuan) and cement sales revenue (about 1.46 billion yuan), we believe that the 2012 results have been locked in. With financial support of up to 5 billion yuan from Ningbo City Investment, the company's capital chain significantly improved the company's cash flow during the worry-free reporting period. Among them, net operating cash flow was -225 million yuan, a decrease of 3.6 billion yuan over the previous year. The debt structure has improved, and the balance ratio after deducting advance accounts fell 1 percentage point year on year to 62.75%. The company will continue to receive investment support from Ningbo City. That is, from January 1, 2011 to the date of the 2012 annual shareholders' meeting, the company is expected to have a cumulative loan amount of no more than 8 billion yuan, a maximum loan balance of no more than 5 billion yuan, and a maximum capital loan cost of no more than 110% of the bank's loan interest rate for the same period. Therefore, we believe that the company's capital chain is basically worry-free. Maintaining the company's “buy” investment rating, we expect the company's EPS in 2012-2014 to be 0.64 yuan, 0.82 yuan, and 1.09 yuan respectively, and the corresponding dynamic PE is 11.6 times, 9 times, and 6.8 times, respectively. We maintain the company's “buy” investment rating due to the following considerations: (1) the company's performance was basically locked in 2012, and the net profit growth rate was about 44% year on year; (2) the hidden land reserves of major shareholders and the good prospects for regional economic development in Ningbo will boost the company's growth; (3) Tianyi Plaza's maximum mortgage loan amount can reach 7.18 billion yuan, repairing Tianyi Plaza's asset value in disguise and building a safe margin of investment.

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