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【国泰君安证券】宁波富达2011年年报点评:业绩增长进入快轨

國泰君安 ·  Mar 13, 2012 00:00  · Researches

In 2011, the company achieved operating income of 3.896 billion yuan, an increase of 24.46% year on year, and net profit attributable to parent company owners of 638 million yuan, an increase of 88.21% year on year, achieving EPS of 0.44 yuan. ROE reached 19%, up 6.6 percentage points from last year. The reasons for the sharp increase in performance: 1) residential projects such as Qinglin Bay Phase II and Villa Town Phase I have entered the harvest period; 2) steady growth in commercial rents; 3) strong sales of cement products; 4) The divestment of the electrical appliance business was completed in 11 years, and investment income increased. In terms of commercial real estate, the company is expanding at low cost and is expected to be invested in high-quality assets in the future. The core commercial real estate is Tianyi Plaza, with an operating area of 180,000 square meters. It also hosts the Heyi Avenue Project and the Yuehu Shengyuan Project, which are the majority shareholders. Currently, during the cultivation period, the company has priority purchasing rights in future transfers. Housing development areas have strong advantages, and future land acquisition is expected to be linked to major shareholders. The vast majority of projects are concentrated in Ningbo, and the majority shareholders hold 76.95% of the shares, so both land acquisition and capital can benefit. The land plot in Shipu Banbianshan in Xiangshan County was acquired throughout '11. The planned construction area is 265,300 square meters, and the floor price is 1,262 yuan/square meter. Furthermore, the company transferred 100% of the shares in Xiangshan Villa Real Estate from the majority shareholder. Short-term financial pressure is high. Monetary capital at the end of the period was 1.9 billion, and the total amount of short-term loans and non-current liabilities due within one year was 3.6 billion dollars; the acceleration ratio was only 0.22. However, the company has majority shareholders' support, and plans to lend funds to the majority shareholders to supplement working capital. It is expected that the company's financial situation will improve. The balance of pre-sale housing payments at the end of 2011 was 3.22 billion yuan, and the real estate business performance for 12 years has all been locked in. The overall business goals for 12 years are steady and progressive. The real estate business plans to start 430,000 square meters, lower than last year's plan (620,000 square meters); the cement building materials business plans to sell 4.1 million tons of cement, a slight increase over last year; the commercial revenue plan is 770 million, an increase of 17% over last year's plan. The net profit for the 12th and 13th years is estimated to be 9.70 billion and 1,342 million yuan, respectively, and the corresponding EPS is 0.67 yuan and 0.93 yuan, respectively, and RNAV10.81 yuan per share. The current stock price is 30% off RNAV. According to the 85% RNAV valuation of “leasing+development” companies in the mature market, the company's target price was 9.40 yuan, corresponding to PE in 12 or 13 years, increasing its holdings by 14 or 10 times.

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