The project settlement cycle does not match, resulting in a decline in business performance compared with the same period last year.
On the evening of October 30th, the company disclosed its quarterly report for 2013: operating income was about 2.245 billion yuan, down 15.32% from the same period last year; net profit attributed to shareholders of listed companies was about 302 million yuan, down 15.27% from the same period last year; and basic earnings per share was 0.209 yuan. The main reason for the decline in operating income and net profit during the reporting period is the mismatch of the project settlement cycle, resulting in a relatively small number of settlement projects.
The sales rebate from January to September is about 2 billion, and the performance of Qinglin Bay Phase 8 in the fourth quarter
From January to September, the company's commercial housing sales performance is relatively stable, achieving a commercial housing sales rebate of about 2 billion yuan (the actual commercial housing sales contract income will be higher), which is the same as the commercial housing sales rebate of 1.97 billion yuan (estimated value) in 2012. In the fourth quarter, the company's main project, Qinglin Bay Phase 8, opened on October 20, with sales of nearly 400 sets (including intention agreement) on the same day, which is expected to improve the company's annual sales performance, and we maintain the judgment of 3.5 billion yuan in annual sales.
The balance of the accounts received in advance at the end of the period is 4.25 billion, and the performance guarantee degree of 14 years is improved.
At the end of September, the balance of accounts received in advance of the company's real estate business was about 4.25 billion yuan, up 46.6 percent from 2.9 billion yuan at the beginning of the year. At the same time, due to the disaster in Ningbo, the Qinglin Bay (Phase 6-7) project cannot be settled on time in 2013, so the corresponding accounts received in advance will be postponed to 2014. In addition, the pre-sale of Qinglin Bay Phase 8 project, which opened on October 20, is good, thus increasing the company's project settlement options in 2014.
Maintain a "buy" rating
Due to the impact of the Qinglin Bay (Phase 6-7) project, the project could not be settled on time in 2013, so we reduced the company's operating income by 2013 to 3.648 billion yuan, corresponding to the reduction of the company's EPS to 0.28 yuan. We estimate that the EPS of the company from 2013 to 2015 is 0.28,0.60 and 0.78 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price is 14.8,6.8 and 5.3 times, respectively. As a result of the disaster, we believe that the downgrade of the 2013 performance forecast is temporary and does not change the company's long-term development genes. With the regional economic development and the promotion of new urbanization in Ningbo, we are relatively optimistic about the real estate market in Ningbo, and the company will benefit from it as a real estate company with land potential advantages. We maintain the company's "buy" investment rating.
